Author: Bloomberg Markets
During the first televised debate two weeks ago between the U.S. presidential candidates, Mexico’s peso began rallying as traders judged Hillary Clinton to have gotten the edge over Donald Trump. This time, the currency started surging well before the two opponents were due to start sparring.
The peso jumped 1.5 percent to 19.0150 per U.S. dollar within in an hour of markets opening in Asia on Monday. With some Republican party members calling on Trump to quit the presidential race following the release of a 2005 video in which the real-estate developer is heard talking crudely about women, the Mexican currency had been tipped to rebound from a two-day decline. Trump, 70, who says he won’t quit the racefaces off against Clinton in St. Louis at 9 p.m. New York time in the second of three scheduled debates.
“The correlation between Trump’s performance and trading with the peso seems to be clear to everyone by now,” said Marcin Lipka, a Warsaw-based currency analyst at Cinkciarz.pl, which topped Bloomberg’s forecaster rankings for Latin America in the second quarter. “While lower chances of him winning have been already priced in recently, we are probably going to see some more gains.”