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Daily analysis 29.01.2013

29 Jan 2013 10:25|Marcin Lipka

S&P stays around 5 year highs. After a calm session EUR/USD is still trading close to 1.3450 level. The global currency market is waiting for the crucial Wednesday's FED meeting. In Poland the PLN is ready for 2012 GDP data (10.00 CET). It is worth to take a look on recent voting results from Polish MPC.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time):

  • 10.00 CET: Polish GDP for 2012 (survey around +1.9 to +2.0)
  • 16.00 CET: Conference Board for the States (survey 64 points)

No major changes on EUR/USD and at NYSE. Markets are waiting for FED.

No emotion on U.S equities and low volatility on EUR/USD results that yesterday's session will not make history. The markets are clearly waiting for tomorrow’s FED meeting outcome. It is quite possible that Ben Bernanke will try to assure investors that ultra dovish policy and QE will stay until the unemployment drops to 6.5% and inflation expectations do not exceed 2.5%. Some doubts regarding that policy appeared after the recent “Minutes” published on January 3rd (detailed analysis /eng/news/daily-analysis/daily-analysis-04.01.2013). If on Wednesday the statement from Federal Reserve is dovish, then we can expect a significant USD depreciation and a move on EUR/USD above 1.3500. On the other hand if data from last “Minutes” is confirmed then the dollar can appreciate fast and slide even under 1.3300.

PLN is focused on GDP.

The recent data from Polish economy – retail sales, industrial production and unemployment rate, are not the optimistic sings before today's GDP report. Even yesterday some economists reduced their estimates regarding today's reading. Finally the market consensus is around 1.9% to 2%. Any results with “2” will be positive for PLN and strengthen the Polish currency by around 0.02-0.03 PLN. Unfortunately the more possible outcome is that the actual data will be around 1.8-1.9. The lower bound reading will result in further zloty depreciation toward 4.2300. If the published result is around 1.9 then I expect slight strengthen and focus on further reports (FOMC or Friday's Polish PMI and NFP).

Interesting Voting results of MPC members.

Yesterday the National Bank of Poland (NBP) published the December voting results of MPC members. It is interesting how the voting looks like if we compare and contrast the data from November and December regarding three members: Professor Glapiński, Professor Gilowska, and NBP governor Marek Belka: http://www.nbp.pl/en/publikacje/o_polityce_pienieznej/voting_xi2012.pdf http://www.nbp.pl/en/publikacje/o_polityce_pienieznej/voting_xii2012.pdf . We can clearly seen that hawkish members (professor Gilowska and professor Glapiński) significantly changed their mind between the November voting (were against the 25 bps cut) and December voting when they both voted for 50 bps cut (even though the majority decided to lower the rates in November by 25bps). On the other hand professor Marek Belka opted for reducing the interest rate by 50 bps in November but was against such a move in December.

Spodziewane przedziały par złotowych w zależności od kursu EUR/USD:

EUR/USD 1.3350-1.3450 1.3450-1.3550 1.3250-1.3350
EUR/PLN 4.1500-4.1800 4.1400-4.1800 4.1500-4.1900
USD/PLN 3.0900-3.1300 3.0700-3.1100 3.1000-3.1500
CHF/PLN 3.3400-3.3700 3.3400-3.3700 3.3500-3.3800

Technical analysis EUR/USD: staying around the yearly highs is a bullish signal. The odds for successful test of 1.3500 are quite highs. Taking into account the trend any correction move not exceeding 1.3300 should be used for opening long positions.


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: yesterday's move above 4.2000 level is a confirmation of the bulls strength. Another resistance level which is suppose to be reached is 4.23 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). The change of the trend is possible only when we slide under 4.1500.


Technical analysis USD/PLN: the bearish trend is still defended by 3.14 level and 50 DMA. If we comeback below 3.1000 it will be strong bearish signal and target of 3.05 will be in the range. On the other hand breaking 3.1400 upside will generate the buy signal even with the target around 3.25-27.


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the comeback above 3.36 is a result of the most probable scenario. Only when we break down 3.3300 the shorts are preferred. On the other hand the move above 3.41 is a strong bullish sing.


29 Jan 2013 10:25|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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