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Daily analysis 23.01.2013

23 Jan 2013 10:38|Marcin Lipka

Much better then expected ZEW index was muted by earlier reports (dismissed) regarding Jens Weidmann resignation from the ECB. Today's David Cameron speech will not suppose to have any impact on the EUR/USD. The market is already preparing to Thursday's PMI data from Europe and Friday's IFO index from Germany. In Poland we have 2 and 5 year bond auction today and on Thursday retails sales data.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time):

  • around 22.30 CET: last quarter Apple results (survey: 13.55 EPS)

BOJ increases its inflation target. Unlimited QE starts in 2014.

The Tuesday's news of the day was suppose to be the ZEW index. However, just around half an hour before the data was released two negative statements hit the markets. First it was a rumor regarding Jens Weidmann resignation (promptly denied by the Bundesbank), and second some report concerning dividing investment banks in Germany. The ZEW index was much better then expected (survey: 12 points; actual: 31.5 points) and improved the situation, but in the next few hours EUR/USD was sliding gradually and ended the day close to the opening level. That situation shows some indecisiveness before the key Thursday data (Eurozone and German PMI), and Friday's IFO index. Today the global investors will be focused on the Apple results. If the Iphone producer shows robust earnings (at least 50 cents more then expected) it can set the sentiment on the U.S markets and allow S&P 500 to continue the upside move (new highs and test of 1500 as early as on Thursday) and in result it can push EUR/USD higher (also improve the sentiment on CEE currencies).

Cameron's Speech will not suppose to have any impact on the global markets.

The U.K prime minister speech regarding the Britain's future in the EU will not suppose to affect the EUR/USD. Also the GBP pairs have already had enough time to price in the idea especially that in the morning Financial Times published the key parts of the speech. Additionally if we look closer into the details, we see that the referendum will be announced only if the conservative party wins the 2015 election. Cameron also promised that the society will decide whether to stay in the EU or not in the first half on the new parliament term (what means that the voting concerning EU will take place around 2016-2017). Taking in account the speed of economical changes and Britons hesitancy (according to YouGov market research firm at the end of November 2012 51% was in favor of leaving European Union, and only 30% preferred to stay. In January 17-18th 2013 survey the situation reversed and 40% would like to stay within the EU and 34% wants to leave) it is clear that announcing the referendum 4 years in advance is strictly a political issue (both concerning internal and external matters).

PLN focuses on debt auction and Thursday's eco data.

Today the zloty will be focused on 2 and 5 year debt auction. According to data from Bloomberg the Ministry of Finance would like to sell bonds worth between 6 and 9 billion PLN. High bid to cover ratio and supplementary auction can slightly strengthen the PLN. Later the market will be preparing for Thursday's retail sales and European PMIs. In a few weeks we can expect that MPC member Jan Winiecki will be forced to leave the committee. An appeals court will suppose to rule on February 13th against him in the case regarding accusing former National Bank of Poland, Sławomir Skrzypek that he lacks qualification. Professor Winiecki is regarding as a hawkish part of MPC, so the new candidate (will be chosen by Senate) is suppose to boost the dovish part (especially taking into account the pressure from Ministry of Finance to lower the rates).

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.3250-1.3350 1.3350-1.3450 1.3150-1.3250
EUR/PLN 4.1400-4.1800 4.1300-4.1700 4.1500-4.1900
USD/PLN 3.1000-3.1500 3.0800-3.1300 3.1300-3.1800
CHF/PLN 3.3400-3.3700 3.3300-3.3600 3.3500-3.3900

Technical analysis EUR/USD: another day didn't change the technical situation. Only if we break down 1.3200 level we can expect the further move toward 1.3080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 50 DMA) and in extension toward 1.3000 level. However according to the trend the recent levels should be used to open long positions.


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: it sill stays around 4.1700 level. Taking in the account technical situation it is more possible that we can go further upside toward 4.2100 then coming back below 4.1200.


Technical analysis USD/PLN: we are sill close to breaking 3.1400 and generating the buy signal. For now however, the resistance level defends the upside move and we still have more odds to go lower then higher. If we breakout above the 3.1400 level the move can be stopped at 3.25-3.27. The come back from 3.1400 and falling back under 3.1000 will increase the chances to slide toward 3.0500.


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the move above 3.3600 increase the chances that the pair will stay in the range trade (3.36-3.41). However, if it attacks the 3.36 again the sell signal will be generated only when it breaks down 3.3300 level. On the other hand breakout 3.4100 level will be a buy signal with the target around 3.45-3.47 (between 200 DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level).


23 Jan 2013 10:38|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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