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Daily analysis 24.01.2013

24 Jan 2013 10:52|Marcin Lipka

Average quarterly results and weak forecast pushed Apple lower by 10 % in after hours trading. Good PMI data from China and another statement from Japanese official lowered JPY and helped EUR/USD to stay above 1.3300. During the European session we have some crucial data on German and Eurozone PMI. The yesterday's successful debt auction and Treasury sales of PKO BP helped PLN only for a while. At 10.00 CET we have the key data on retail sales.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time):

  • 9.28 CET: preliminary manufacturing PMI form Germany (survey: 46.8)
  • 9.28 CET: preliminary services PMI from Germany (survey: 52)
  • 9.58 CET: preliminary manufacturing PMI form EuroZone (survey: 46.6)
  • 9.58 CET: preliminary services PMI form EuroZone (survey: 48)
  • 10.00 CET: retail sales from Poland (survey: +1.4%)
  • 14.00 CET: Polish rate minutes
  • 14.30 CET: weekly jobless claims from the States (survey 355k)
  • 14.58 CET: preliminary PMI form USA (survey: 53): still the index is not closely watched by investors. Manufacturing data comes from ISM index

Average quarterly results and disappointing expectations slumped Apple price. Good PMI data from China and are helping to keep EUR/USD above 1.3300.

The whole capital markets was yesterday waiting for the Apple results. The quarterly report of the largest U.S based corporation was not as bad as the chart shows (both in terms of revenue and EPS). A key to the slide was the next quarter expectations which were set at around 41-43 billion USD (revenue), whereas analysts expected the revenue around 45.5 billion USD. It caused a 10% slide on the stock and 0.5% retreat at S&P 500 future contracts. Some optimism was injected after Chinese PMI. The index which measures a management expectations rose to 51.9 (survey 51.7) which was the highest level in two years. Another information which supported the EUR/USD was another Japanese official statement. The deputy economy minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that USD/JPY at 90 is just a correction move from the long term yen strength. He also told reporters that the exchange rate at 100 level will not be a problem for the Japanese economy.

Europe is waiting for the PMI data.

The European data is waiting for the PMI data from Germany and the EuroZone. However, the PMI report from France (has just been published) was much weaker then expected (survey for manufacturing: 44.9; actual: 42.9 and survey for services: 45.5; actual value 43.6) can significantly lower the overall EuroZone reading. Concerning the news from France (usually omitted on the global basis) the German reading will have to be at least 1 point better then expected to level off the weak info from Paris and help EUR/USD to come back above 1.3300.

PLN despite a robust debt auction and PKO BP offering was not able to hold the gains. Today the zloty will be focused on the retail sales.

Yesterday the Polish currency had a great opportunity to gain some value. The robust debt auction (Ministry of Finance met around 40% of its 2013 borrowing needs) and quite substantial demand of PKO BP offering pushed EUR/PLN from 4.1700 to 4.1500. Later however, (despite a relatively good global sentiment) the zloty weakened and ended the day at the opening level (4.1700). It shows that the PLN depreciation odds are quite high, especially that today's retails sales can disappoint (please look at the bottom chart where there is a positive correlation between industrial production – yellow line, and retail sales – white line), On the other hand if the data surprises on the positive side (low probability) it can help to strengthen PLN to EUR around 0.02 PLN. At 14.00 CET we get report from MPC how the council voted on the December meeting.

Spodziewane przedziały par złotowych w zależności od kursu EUR/USD:

EUR/USD 1.3250-1.3350 1.3350-1.3450 1.3150-1.3250
EUR/PLN 4.1400-4.1800 4.1300-4.1700 4.1500-4.1900
USD/PLN 3.1000-3.1500 3.0800-3.1300 3.1300-3.1800
CHF/PLN 3.3400-3.3700 3.3300-3.3600 3.3500-3.3900

Technical analysis EUR/USD: another session didn't change much, however it is possible that EUR/USD can form a continuation trend formation (flag, pennant). Coming back to the levels only when we break down 1.3200 there is a chance to break down 1.3080 (23.6 Fibonacci retracemnt level and 50 DMA) and then toward 1.3000. According to the trend however the current levels should be used by bulls to open new positions.


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: we are still around 4.1700 level. The yesterday's slide toward 4.1500 has changed nothing an there is still more possible to go toward 4.2100 ten coming back under 4.1200.


Technical analysis USD/PLN: we are sill close to breaking 3.1400 and generating the buy signal. For now however, the resistance level defends the upside move and we still have more odds to go lower then higher. If we breakout above the 3.1400 level the move can be stopped at 3.25-3.27. The come back from 3.1400 and falling back under 3.1000 will increase the chances to slide toward 3.0500.


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: we came back to the 3.36-3.41 range trade. The break down under 3.3600 does not mean the sell signal. Only when we slide under 3.3300 the bears will consider to open new short position. On the other hand breaking above 3.4100 will generate buy signal with the target around 3.45-3.47 (between 200 DMA and 50 % Fibonacci retracement level).



24 Jan 2013 10:52|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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