Redundancies, company bankruptcies, postponement of spending and investment for better times, and lower living standards are signs of an imminent recession. Depending on your profession and training, you may feel either particularly at risk during this period or quite reassured about your professional future.
"First, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the booming global economy to a halt, disrupting supply chains and the mechanisms behind the shot-up economy. Russia's invasion of Ukraine directly afterwards led to massive price rises in energy, fuel and food commodities, deepening the crisis," points out Bartosz Sawicki, Conotoxia market analyst.
Many countries will face recession any day now. In 2023, the economies of countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom will shrink, and US GDP growth may fall below 0.5%. In some regions of the globe, stagflation - a combination of rising commodity prices and lack of consumption - may become a more serious problem than slowing GDP and record inflation. Unemployment tends to worsen under such conditions.
Tough times for investment and... recruitment
"The world's leading central banks have recently been raising interest rates to suppress inflation. The cost of borrowing is rising to levels not seen for years. The consequence of so-called expensive money is, among other things, stagnation in the construction industry, halting of investments, reduced recruitment of new employees and even redundancies. Global corporations (e.g. Facebook or Twitter) are already making or officially announcing such moves," adds Bartosz Sawicki from Conotoxia.
Are all professions equally prone to encounter problems in keeping their jobs? If the employer does not survive the recession, everyone has to face the risk, which leads to the conclusion that no professions are completely recession-proof. However, specific skills and experience should guarantee a decent income and relative comfort on the labour market.
Doctor, lawyer, programmer, lecturer - can they, as a rule, sleep soundly?
In some countries, the shortage of IT specialists exceeds several dozen percent. Programmers and IT specialists, as well as experts in cyber-security, and new technologies in the industry, i.e. automation and mechatronics, among others, can pick and choose from relatively high salaries, not only under normal economic conditions but also during a recession. The automation and digitalisation of production and services are becoming more and more widespread and are already entering almost all areas, guaranteeing demand for employees working in these areas.
An ageing population, increasing life expectancy and professional activity, and awareness of, among other things, the impact of diet, maintaining physical fitness (through sport), and specialised care ensure demand for healthcare professionals. This includes not only doctors, physicians and nurses but also, for example, pharmacists, physiotherapists or carers for the elderly and disabled.
The accelerating pace of life, the constant challenges and pressures that accompany us from an early age may also intensify the search for advice and the work of psychiatrists, psychologists, therapists and specialists in treating depression or addiction. The worsening economic situation will not significantly change this.
This is also true for veterinarians, as we care more and more for our dogs, cats and other pets as our civilisation develops. Already a few years ago, data from Euromonitor International and APPA showed that global spending on food and pet products exceeded 106 billion USD annually, with as much as 40% of this amount in the United States.
Graduates of law studies often choose a professional career path in law firms. This is one of the reasons why companies in various industries that need lawyers for full-time positions complain about the shortage of representatives from this profession on the labour market. The increasingly complex regulations that employers have to cope with and the strong and often ruthless market competition influence the fact that, even in a recession, lawyers will not lack employment offers.
Times of hardship may make it even starker for young people to realise how important a careful and well-targeted education will be in their future lives. Consequently, the growing number of university graduates is likely to increase even further, which translates into a demand for lecturers, especially in the fields of technology, ICT, medicine or law. A report by the National Bureau of Economic showed that during the last great recession of 2009, there was a marked increase in the number of university applicants in the USA.
One of the greatest detrimental consequences of the recession appears to be a potential increase in crime. Counteracting and mitigating this include additional duties for centrally-maintained police officers or prison staff, where job cuts are not to be expected.
Before the world saw the spectre of recession, the construction industry sectors did not have to worry about jobs. Whether we are talking about planners, architects, engineers, masons, carpenters, roofers, electricians, etc., we can be sure that there will be no major downturn. Unfortunately, the halt in construction projects may impact the industry and significantly reduce the demand for professionals for large and small construction sites.
Nevertheless, during a crisis, artisans can often count on more orders. Instead of buying a new house or flat, consumers renovate their existing ones, as this is usually a much cheaper solution. On a similar note: the planned purchase of a new car is replaced by the repair of a used one, which provides work for mechanics and car body repairers. Also, we can more often use the services of specialists in household appliance repairs, tailor alterations or shoemakers.
Restlessness among human resources
When abandoning plans to hire new staff, bosses and business owners may find that those responsible for recruiting, selecting and inducting new hires are temporarily redundant. Savings may also affect customer service or marketing departments, the latter, for example, due to reductions in advertising budgets.
High interest rates, expensive and, at the same time, difficult access to loans translate into reduced traffic in the banking business segment, which could mean staff cuts justified by a drastic reduction in the number of mortgages granted. This could be followed by the risk of losing assignments and jobs for independent credit advisors and real estate agents.
In addition, the tourism, leisure and entertainment industry may have problems with work. The recession means, amongst other things, reduced spending on holidays, travel or corporate events, i.e. lower turnover for travel agencies, hotels, restaurants and companies specialising in organising team-building events.