__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
The dollar continues to appreciate. The extension or termination of this trend depends on today's US decision on the nuclear agreement with Iran. The zloty remains under pressure - apart from domestic factors weakening it, its prices are strongly dependent on the dollar's direction.
EUR/USD the lowest since December
During today's session, the dollar continued to appreciate. The dollar index (DXY), which measures its strength against the six main currencies, rose to 93 points today, the highest level since the end of December last year. Today, the euro dropped below 1.19 USD, to the lowest level also since the same period (EUR/USD is the largest component of DXY).
The dollar appreciation that has been observed is a combination of a weaker euro, resulting from the cooling down of the eurozone economy and still subdued inflation, as well as the ongoing process of monetary tightening in the USA. The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates at least twice this year.
In the coming days, the dollar's valuation and indirectly the entire currency market will be dependent on the US decision regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran (today at 8:00 p.m. CET) and Thursday's data on inflation from this economy. Given the recent strong appreciation of the dollar, it appears that virtually any scenario other than a total withdrawal by the US from the agreement will be negative for the dollar.
The zloty, which is sensitive to changes in the US currency's value, is also waiting for this information. The US withdrawal and sanctions against Iran would mean a worsening of market sentiment and capital outflow from emerging markets. This would probably strengthen the dollar further while having a negative impact on the whole zloty's basket.
Today, the Polish currency was still under pressure - one euro cost 4.28 PLN today, close to the upper limit since October last year, while the dollar cost 3.61 for the most since November. The weaker condition of the Polish currency was also reflected in the PLN/HUF quotations - the zloty lost about 0.3% of its value to the Hungarian currency around 3:00 p.m. The most positive scenario for the zloty would be if the US doe does not withdraw from the nuclear agreement. It is possible that only some sanctions will be imposed, which could also potentially strengthen the zloty.
Tomorrow's preview
The calendar of scheduled macroeconomic publications or events that could have a significant impact on currency exchange rates is rather limited tomorrow. The market can still discount this evening's decision of the USA regarding Iran while waiting for Thursday's consumer inflation data (CPI) in the United States.
Exactly 24 hours before the CPI data publication, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish data on April's inflation among producers (PPI) at 2:30 p.m. It is relatively less important for the dollar (and indirectly for other currencies), however, if the base index (excluding energy and food prices) rises above the market consensus of 2.4% year-on-year, further increases of the dollar may be observed. Moreover, the potential changes are likely to be limited as investors wait for data on consumer inflation.
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Iran in the limelight (Daily analysis 08.05.2018)
Stronger dollar (Daily analysis 07.05.2018)
Zloty closer to being stable (Afternoon video analysis 04.05.2018)
Another day with weak data (Daily analysis 04.05.2018)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account