__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The EUR/USD pair set the new lows of this year. Has Powell's neutral speech had an impact on the currency market? Perhaps the chances are growing for an agreement with Iran to be maintained. Strong dollar puts pressure on the Polish currency. The EUR/PLN close to 4.26-4.27, the dollar moves towards 3.60 PLN.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Dollar appreciates even more
Tuesday's quotations started with slightly better than expected readings from the German economy. Industrial production increased to 3.2% year-on-year in March, with expectations at 3.0%. The foreign trade balance of Germany was also solid. In March, the surplus amounted to 25.2 billion EUR, the third highest ever.
However, apart from positives, it is worth noting that the high surplus resulted mainly from a drop in imports (for the second consecutive month after the seasonal adjustment) and not from a rapid increase in exports. This may suggest that the German economy has slowed down, however, as the last few weeks have shown.
At 9.00 a.m., Jerome Powell's speech was published. The Head of the Federal Reserve took part in a conference organized by SNB in Zurich. It was not a breakthrough, but it was intended to show the market that the inflow of capital to emerging markets is primarily dependent on the difference in economic growth rates between emerging and developed countries, rather than on the Fed's monetary policy.
It seems that the market could have misunderstood this statement. While the Fed is confident about the small global impact of the monetary tightening in the US, the US monetary authorities will not hesitate to accelerate the rate of increase if necessary. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to its lowest levels this year (below 1.1880), and historical weakness records against the dollar were reached by the Turkish lira. The zloty depreciated during the conference in Zurich. It is seen that the sentiment towards the USD remains positive.
Market waits for Trump's announcement
Yesterday morning, it seemed that it would be most likely that the US would withdraw completely from the nuclear agreement and impose sanctions on Iran. However, on Monday, Donald Trump announced on Twitter that he would present his decision today at 8.00 p.m. CET.
The Twitter message was not particularly emotional as it had been in the case of Iran (e.g. the worst contract ever). In addition, in the evening Bloomberg news agency quoted the Israeli media, according to which British, French and German diplomats are close to an agreement with the US negotiators to come up with a solution to persuade President Trump not to withdraw from the nuclear agreement.
As a result, it cannot be excluded that the lenient sanctions may be imposed during today's speech and a more comprehensive solution to maintain Iranian oil exports may be developed in the coming months. This would be a negative sign for oil prices, which could fall sharply. However, this would have a positive impact on global sentiment and probably on the Polish currency.
On the other hand, if the US decides to withdraw completely from the agreement and suggests that the negotiations are deadlocked, then probably another wave of oil price increases will be seen, not only because of the hypothetical reduction in Iranian exports but also because of the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. This could cause a worsening of the global sentiment, an outflow of capital from emerging markets and a further strengthening of the dollar. It would also be disadvantageous for the zloty.
Zloty under pressure
The Polish currency remains weak during the morning trade. The EUR/PLN pair is close to 4.26-4.27. This does not present a panic sale of the zloty, but the growing dollar prices cause natural pressure on the zloty. For the Polish currency, the report on the Iranian agreement will be also crucial.
If most of the sanctions against Iran were to be reinstated and the prospects for further talks remained uncertain, then we can expect the global sentiment to deteriorate and the zloty to be sold off. In the case of the indirect solution (details in the previous paragraphs), which chances to occur have increased slightly since yesterday evening, the zloty may benefit somewhat from the general wave of better global sentiment.
See also:
Stronger dollar (Daily analysis 07.05.2018)
Zloty closer to being stable (Afternoon video analysis 04.05.2018)
Another day with weak data (Daily analysis 04.05.2018)
The market doesn't rest (Daily analysis 30.04.2018)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.