__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The market is waiting for US inflation data. Trading on the EUR/USD was disrupted by the ECB official comments. The zloty remains under pressure while the EUR/PLN is quoted close to 4.21 level.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Waiting for inflation data
Trading on the EUR/USD has been fairly stable since the morning. Despite the fact that the main currency pair has tested levels around 1.23500 after comments from one of the ECB officials (Philip Lane) concerning the common currency. It seems that investors are rather prone to waiting for US inflation readings that extend moves on the ECB message.
There has been a discussion on the market for some time whether the European monetary authorities are concerned about the inflation target fulfillment due to the strong euro. This discussion was also put forward after comments from Lane. The Irish ECB member told Bloomberg that there was “no concern about the current euro level”. Even though he also stressed that “if it moves a lot within a short time interval, then we have to think about implications” the overall message showed limited concerns about FX moves.
After the comments, the EUR/USD rose to 1.2350 level, but the gains around 20-30 pips were quickly pared. It is likely that investors are more prone to reacting to today’s inflation readings from the US. Economist consensus shows a 2.2% y/y reading for February and 1.8% y/y when we exclude more volatile components such as oil and food.
Core inflation is expected to be broadly analyzed by investors. Its slide from 2.3% level seen just a year ago was one of the main events which probably pushed the dollar lower. Taking into account the economists individual projections, it seems that the surprise may be rather on the upside, 1.9% y/y, than on the downside.
However, it is worth noting that last month we had a significant acceleration of apparel prices (1.7% m/m) and medical services (0.6% m/m). Somewhat slower gains of these components may create some strong headwinds to a strong upside surprise to the core CPI (for example, to 2.0% y/y). Finally, the data may be moderately above consensus, but the odds of a significant move remain low. As a result, there is also a low probability that after the data the dollar will strengthen markedly.
Further zloty weakness
For several days we have stressed that internal weakness pressure on the zloty may strengthen (comments from the MPC, data on foreign trade). Moreover, the zloty uses fairly low-level impulses from the global markets (for example, Lane’s comments) to extend its weakness. It may also suggest that there is more room for further PLN weakness.
Regarding the US data impact on the zloty, it seems that higher than expected core CPI reading may be negative for the currency. It may not only push the dollar higher but also bring the EUR/PLN above the 4.22 level to new three-month highs.
See also:
Zloty starts with falls (Afternoon analysis 12.03.2018)
Disturbing foreign trade (Daily analysis 12.03.2018)
No increases for dollar (Afternoon analysis 09.03.2018)
Attention focused on the USA (Daily analysis 09.03.2018)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.