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Attention focused on the USA (Daily analysis 09.03.2018)

9 Mar 2018 12:35|Marcin Lipka

The market behaviour has been rather negative for EUR/USD since yesterday's ECB meeting. Significant data from the labour market, especially in the context of recent signals from the Fed. Pressure remains on the Polish zloty after Wednesday's MPC meeting. The EUR/PLN pair close to 4.20 boundary.

The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.

  • 2:30 p.m.: Data from the US Labour market for February. Change in hourly wages (estimates: 0.2% MOM and 2.8% YOY). Change in employment in the non-farm sector (estimates: +205k). Unemployment rate (estimates: 4.0%).

ECB and other signals

The EUR/USD quotations are close to 1.2300 during the first part of the European session due to yesterday's signals from the ECB. However, despite the expectations, the White House's declaration of customs duties on steel and aluminium (with a limited scope) or the growing chances of reducing geopolitical tensions through the expected meeting of US and North Korean leaders had limited impact on the main pair's quotations.

Regarding yesterday's news from the ECB, it is worth noting that a fragment about the possibility of increasing or prolonging QE (if inflation forecast worsened) has been removed. In the beginning, it supported the euro, but then, during a press conference, Mario Draghi convinced investors that at this point the scenario of increasing the QE is not likely anyway, because there is a slow exit from an ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

It seems that the clear lack of hurry was the most important yesterday. This was confirmed by the inflation projections for 2019, which were slightly decreased to 1.4%. This shows very limited pressure on price increases in the eurozone. The prospect of interest rates before the end of the first half of 2019 is also unlikely. This should cause downward pressure on the euro from monetary conditions.

Labour market

Today, investors will focus on data from the US labour market. The main attention will be put on the change in wages in the USA. The market consensus indicates an increase by 2.8% year-on-year. This is at least less than in January (2.9% YOY, with 8-year-long highs).

Probably, maintenance of the last month's value should be positive for the dollar and for the US Treasury bond yields, especially given the recent relatively hawkish speech by Lael Brainard, which suggested increasing chances of inflation reaching the target. The increase in wages, which oscillates around 3.0%, would also noticeably support this view.

Today's labour market data will also be important in the relation to the market's response to changing sentiment. In recent days, the situation where a better sentiment is negative for the dollar and vice versa has been distorted for several weeks. In turn, it may turn out that market sentiment will be relatively good, but the US currency will appreciate due to a strong increase in wages or, for example, a drop in unemployment to the level of 4.0%, i.e. to the lowest value for over 17 years.

Weak but stable zloty

The situation on the Polish market remains stable, but the outcomes of Wednesday's MPC meeting is still visible. Since the beginning of the week, the zloty has been losing about 1% to the forint. Also, the EUR/PLN pair remains close to the 4.20 despite a relatively good global sentiment.

The change in the zloty may significantly increase in the afternoon, i.e. around the publication time of the US labour market data. The most vulnerable to the volatile situation will be the USD/PLN pair, which, with an extremely strong reading (3.0% increase in wages and unemployment below 4.0%) may reach 3.45. In the case of EUR/PLN or CHF/PLN, the movements should be smaller and should be between 0.01-0.02 PLN.

9 Mar 2018 12:35|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

8 Mar 2018 14:41

Stable zloty today (Afternoon analysis 08.03.2018)

8 Mar 2018 12:46

Japan cuts cryptocurrencies

8 Mar 2018 12:31

Pressure on the zloty (Daily analysis 08.03.2018)

7 Mar 2018 15:39

Zloty remains unchanged (Afternoon analysis 07.03.2018)

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