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Sentiment improves (Daily analysis 26.03.2018)

26 Mar 2018 12:45|Marcin Lipka

Better sentiment before the start of the US session and the slight weakening of the dollar, causing the EUR/USD pair to cross the 1.2400 border. The market is not concerned about the growing risk of a Eurosceptic coalition in Italy. The zloty remains relatively stable. EUR/PLN close to the 4.23 boundary.

The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.

  • A lack of macro data may noticeably impact the analyzed currency pairs.

Mnuchin's comments helped

Strong fluctuations have been observed in the global market. On Friday, due to concerns about extending the trade argument between China and the United States, indexes on the New York market depreciated significantly. Today, in turn, sentiment is clearly improving, which is most likely due to Steven Mnuchin's weekend comments.

In an interview for Fox News on Sunday, the US Treasury Secretary said that he has "cautious hopes" on a trade deal with China. This also suggested that there is a possibility of avoiding the actual introduction of the additional tariffs announced by President Trump last week.

Today's Financial Times also reported that compromise elements are possible on the Chinese side. The implementation of maximum foreign ownership in China's financial services market would be accelerated. Currently, the ceiling for foreign capital in this industry amounts to 49%. The new regulations would allow an increase of up to 51%. China would also reduce its current tariffs on cars imported from the US.

As a result, S&P 500 futures appreciated by approx. 1.5% around midday. If in the following hours the reduction of tension on the Beijing-Washington line was confirmed by successive leading officers from the American administration, then there is a chance of maintaining good sentiment and pressure on the dollar.

Uncertainty in Italy. Stable zloty

Between the lines, we learned that the Five Stars Movement and the Northern League were working together to elect the Presidents of the Parliament chambers. The lower one was occupied by Robert Fico, representative of the Five Stars Movement.

There was speculation that a Eurosceptic coalition of these two parties was not excluded at all, despite ideological differences between them. A slightly milder scenario is also possible, with Silvio Berlusconi, or Forza Italia, joining the government.

In such a case, the chance for Great Coalition between centre-left and centre-right is diminishing. This may complicate Rome's relationship with Brussels and, in the event of deterioration in the economic situation in the eurozone, raise concerns about the collapse of the single currency area.

In the case of zloty calm quotations are observed. The dollar returned close to a 3.40 PLN limit, but the EUR/PLN pair is still moving in the range of 4.22-4.23. The empty macroeconomic calendar and symptoms of a slight decrease in the dispute between China and the United States should contribute to the stabilisation of the zloty in the following hours.

26 Mar 2018 12:45|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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