__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The issue of tariffs between the US and China has resulted in significant decreases in most of the world's markets. The situation on the currency market remained calm compared to events on the share market. Strong depreciation of the Turkish lira. The zloty is incurring some losses but to a limited extent. The EUR/PLN pair close to the 4.23 level.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Significant sentiment deterioration
Yesterday, the shares in the US market dropped to about 2.5%. In turn, during the Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei fell by as much as 4.5%. The strong decreases were mainly caused by the US administration's message of customs duties on Chinese goods and the subsequent response from Beijing. However, it seems that investors may have slightly overestimated the scale of the negative consequences.
For some time, in the public space, there was an amount of 50 billion USD of additional tariffs. This meant, that almost all goods imported to the US were to be subject to an additional duty of 10% (500 billion USD worth of annual imports from China). Therefore, this would be a very rapid move. However, it turned out that goods worth 50 billion USD would be subject to additional tariffs at the 25% level (the customs duties' value worth 10 billion USD is much, but still it is not 50 billion USD).
Still, it seems unlikely that all the declared restrictions will enter into force (so far the list of products is not known). Moreover, it is likely that to some extent it is part of the White House game. In the case of steel and aluminium, many countries have been released from the restrictions.
A broad trade war, with such a globalised economy, would not be good for either side. In addition, there are elections in the USA in November (1/3 of the Senate and the whole House of Representatives will fight for votes). Any economic turbulence during this period (including market turbulence) is unlikely to be welcomed. Especially if they were the result of the actions of the current administration.
The currency market seems to have approached the issue appropriately. There have been relatively moderate movements (the strengthening of the yen and the franc, or the weakening of emerging countries' currencies). It was also very difficult for investors to assess which country would be the least affected if the conflict had actually escalated. As a result, there were not many movements in currencies.
In the case of FX, however, the exception was the Turkish lira. Its exchange rate has been very weak recently, and additionally, at night, it was weakened by about 4% (now it is about 1.5%). This has led to historic highs for both the EUR/TRY and the USD/TRY pairs. During the year, the lira lost as much as 20% to the euro, which practically means a currency crisis.
Zloty remains stable
Global share market depreciation and a general increase in risk aversion can be seen in the zloty, but changes in the domestic currency are very limited. The EUR/PLN quotations are close to the 4.23 limit, while PLN/HUF increased to 74, which means that the zloty has pared some of the recent losses to the forint.
Poland is only marginally exposed to the hypothetical negative effects of the trade conflict between the US and China compared to other countries. Therefore, the threats to the zloty through the trade channel remain limited. Only prolongation of the share depreciation and a wider capital outflow to safe haven could seriously damage the Polish currency. Currently, the risk of such a negative scenario is relatively low.
See also:
The pound may appreciate (Afternoon analysis 22.03.2018)
The myth of bitcoin anonymity debunked
Worse eurozone's sentiment (Daily analysis 22.03.2018)
Zloty under pressure (Afternoon analysis 21.03.2018)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.