__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Data on industrial production from Germany fails the market. Low GDP reading from the eurozone with worrying productivity information. Wages as the key part of the Department of Labour data. The zloty is slightly depreciating but remains in the range of 4.28-4.29 per euro.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Attention shifted to data
The last hours were characterised by the stabilization of equity and bond market quotations. The fluctuation range of currencies is also very low at the end of the week. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the data received since the morning and important afternoon readings.
The morning publications from Germany and the eurozone were once again not impressive. Industrial production fell by 0.5% m/m. The seasonal average (for the last six readings) is only 0.1% m/m for each month. The annual reading has clearly rebounded upward, but this is only the result of a low base from a year ago. In November, the base is very high, which increases the risk that the next readings will be negative for the next year.
There is nothing good about the GDP of the eurozone. The growth was only 0.2% q/q. In addition, the GDP components may be worrying. Private and public consumption and investments had a meagre contribution to the growth. Equally worrying is also the weakest productivity growth in over 5 years, which amounted to only 0.3% y/y in the eurozone.
The data may also be relevant for next week's ECB meeting. There are no signs that the situation in the eurozone will improve. The projections will also be clearly revised downward (especially for the current year) and the risk balance may be revised downwards from a neutral level. This would not be good news for the euro.
Apart from issues related to the Old Continent, today attention is focused on data from the USA. The volatility of the number of new payrolls created in the US economy is quite high. In addition, the number of new jobs is growing all the time. If this month is weaker, it should not cause a dramatic dollar weakening. Also in the case of a positive surprise, the reading will probably be ignored.
Therefore, wages will be a much more important parameter. The economists' consensus points to a growth of 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. It seems that exceeding this limit by 0.1 percentage points in both cases should be positive for the dollar. First of all, it should show greater tension in the labour market, which supports further tightening of monetary policy. Secondly, higher wages and risk of inflation growth (including the core inflation rate). Thirdly, the reading at the level of 3.2% would be the highest in less than a decade. If wage growth exceeds expectations, then we can anticipate a positive signal for the dollar and a breakthrough from a rather limited range of fluctuations in recent days.
Limited changes in zloty's valuation
The zloty is stable. Movements on the euro are within the plus/minus range of 0.005 PLN and are generally ignored in the broader analysis. There are also no spectacular changes in the dollar and the pound. The zloty will be waiting for data from the US labour market, but above all the dollar may be subject to greater changes after BLS readings.
If the wage estimates are exceeded, then the US currency has a chance to clearly appreciate and reach around 3.80 PLN. In the absence of surprises, the zloty should remain stable in relation to the main currencies.
See also:
Slightly weaker dollar supports zloty (Afternoon analysis 6.12.2018)
Market bleeds, but currencies remain calm (Daily analysis 6.12.2018)
Limited changes for euro and dollar (Afternoon analysis 5.12.2018)
Cryptocurrency mining becoming less attractive
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.