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Daily analysis 28.03.2013

28 Mar 2013 11:22|Marcin Lipka

Cyprus introduces a capital control (daily withdrawals up to 300 euro). The local stock market remains closed. More political problems in Italy. British GDP in line with expectations. The zloty remains weaker on the global risk aversion.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • 13.30 CET: finalny odczyt PKB w USA (szacunki +0.5% q/q),
  • 13.30 CET: jobless claims in the U.S (survey 340k)

Cyprus still in focus. Slim chances for a government in Italy

After almost two weeks, the banks are scheduled to open today. The central bank, however, put strict rules regarding withdrawals or transfers. The daily cash limit is 300 euro, and monthly credit/debit card restrictions are 5k euro. Additional an individual cannot take out of the country more then 3k euro. As Reuters reports there are also limits on company transactions. Any transfer over 5k euro will be checked, and 200k payments will be accepted individually (interesting thing is who is gonna to be responsible, especially that there are reports (The Wall Street Journal) on hundreds million euro transfers out of Cyprus after the bank closure almost two weeks ago)).

Very few believe that current capital restrictions are temporary. The case regarding larger cash holders has also not been resolved. There is no information how much money will be returned to the wealthier people. If suggestions from Cyprus finance minister (cited by The Wall Street Journal yesterday), that only 20% will be recovered, we can expect that the panic can be extended.

There is also no good news from Italy. Cited by Bloomberg politicians don't seem to be optimistic. The current Prime Minister Mario Monti says he “can't wait to quit his job” and Pier Luigi Bersani claims that “only and insane person would want to govern at this moment”. Bersani is scheduled to meet Giorgio Neapolitano (President) and brief him on the political impasse. However, few expect that there is a good solution to the current situation. The Financial Times reports that the President may ask Bersani to step aside so the negotiations can be continued by Enrico Letta (possible Bersani deputy). The probability that Berlusconi will accept the deal (grand coalition) is pretty low especially that according to recent research his party slightly leading the opinion polls.

In consequence of European problems EUR/USD is still under pressure and there are no signs of a stronger rebound (above 1.3000). There is also quite nervous reaction on the bond market where there are clear sings of money flow from peripheries to safe haven (German 10-year bond yields are around its summer 2012 lows – under 1.30%).

British GDP in line with expectations

The GDP data published on Wednesday turned out to be in line with the Bloomberg survey. The market tried to be a bit more volatile before the report was revealed, but the cable is trading in the morning again around 1.5150. The European turmoil is rather neutral to the GBP/USD valuation (capital flow to semi-safe haven British debt market is leveled by overall worse market sentiment). The situation looks different on EUR/GBP, where through EUR/USD slide and range trend on the GBP/USD, the pair is falling (the pound is strengthening to euro). It also results in GBP/PLN surge.

Further zloty weakness

The Polish currency reacts pretty calm (on EUR/PLN) to the overall risk aversion. There is more volatility on the GBP/PLN and USD/PLN but it is only the result of the global currency movements.

There are more voices on Polish euro-adoption referendum. Yesterday the deputy Prime Minister and finance minister Jacek Rostowski was suggesting during the TVN 24 interview that he would support the single currency referendum but only in case the 50% turnout is abandoned.

The single currency discussion seems to be neutral for the zloty (distant future, no clear idea why the government supports the referendum solution). I want to remind that in December 2012 the Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the referendum is behind us because the accession voting was concurrently the acceptance of the common currency.

Today we got the voting results form February MPC rate meeting. Only two members were against the 25bps cut (Winiecki and Rzonca). In 4 weeks we should get details on March decision which will show who did support the controversial 50 bps decrease in March.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate

EUR/USD 1.2750-1.2850 1.2850-1.2950 1.2650-1.2750
EUR/PLN 4.1700-4.2100 4.1600-4.2000 4.1800-4.2200
USD/PLN 3.2500-3.2900 3.2200-3.2600 3.2800-3.3200
CHF/PLN 3.4100-3.4500 3.4000-3.4400 3.4200-3.4600

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate.

GBP/USD 1.5150-1.5250 1.5250-1.5350 1.4950-1.5050
GBP/PLN 4.9300-4.9700 4.9500-4.9900 4.9100-4.9500

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the pair does not want to initiate even a slight correction what supports the bears. The goal for the EUR/USD around 1.2700 can be achieved even as early as till the end of the current week. Any rebound not exceeding 1.3000 should be used to open short positions.


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: we are trying to initiate a breaking up move from the range trade. If we move over 4.1900 there is a chance to attack 4.2300 and in extension even 4.3000 level. The alternative scenario is opening short positions under 4.1500 (low probability).


Technical analysis USD/PLN: after a month the buy signal was generated (mid February, breaking 3.14 upside) we did finally reach the medium term terget of 3.2700. . Another resistance levels are 3.30 (highs of mid November 2012) and 3.33-3.35 range. The alternative scenario is short positions after closing the day under 3.2200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 200 DMA).


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the bulls didn't allow to break the 3.4000 support level. The 3.4800 target is still in place.


Technical analysis GBP/PLN: bulls are ruling on the GBP/PLN pair and are pushing toward 5.0000 mark. The breakout will generate medium-term buying signal and keep the short term bullish bias.


28 Mar 2013 11:22|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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Daily analysis 27.03.2013

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Daily analysis 26.03.2013

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Daily analysis 22.03.2013

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