Daily analysis 28.02.2013

Successful Italian debt auction, better-then-expected data from U.S and dovish Ben Bernanke helped S&P to gain value and gave a slight rebound to EUR/USD. Is FED going to hold the securities until maturity? GDP form the States is a key macro data today. The zloty has been quite resilient to sentiment changes.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted:

• 14.30 CET: revised GDP from the U.S (survey +0.5%; first reading was negative (minus 0.1%)
• 14.30 CET: weekly jobless claims form U.S (survey 360k)
• 15.45 CET: Chicago PMI (survey: 54 points)

Stocks rebounded, currencies corrected.

Yesterday the U.S equities ended the day with a strong jump. The Wall Street indicies rose more then 1%, and S&P 500 is only around 15 points off its recent highs. The “risk on” helped also the EUR/USD to correct some of the losses. The sentiment was improved due to better-then-expected durable goods orders (excluding the transportation it rose 1.9% m/m vs survey around +0.2% m/m). The markets were also quite satisfied by a successful debt auction in Italy (debt to cover ration on both 5 and 10-year bonds exceeded 1.5), and Ben Bernanke words regarding current FED policy (ultra low yields + QE) which is supported by most FOMC members. Today it is worth to note the Q4 GDP report from the U.S. In the first reading the data showed that the economy did shrink in last quarter (due to defense cuts and inventory decrease). The revised report is expected to show 0.5% gain in the last three months of 2012. The situation on the Wall Street seems to be clear. The new highs are pretty certain. On the other hand the condition of EUR/USD looks different. The common currency faces more risk factors (consequences of the Italian election, possible rate cut by ECB, and last FED minutes). We have to wait until the threats expires (especially Italy and FED) to think about the come back of EUR/USD rise.

Will FED modify its exit strategy?

Some interesting findings we can get reading the Bloomberg article “Bernanke Says Fed May Decide Not to Sell Securities” at www.bloomberg.com. During Bernanke appearance before the House Financial Services Committee, he told lawmakers that he “expects to revisit sometime soon an exit plan policy”. He claimed that FED can “hold some of the securities a little longer” and “we could even let them just run off”. The last sentence seems to be crucial. There has been an ongoing debate how the FED can reduce its 3 trillion balance and how it can affect the bond market. Keeping some of the assets till they expire can be a good news for the markets (lower the dollar value, increase stocks and overall improve the sentiment). However, on the other hand allowing bonds to mature on the central bank balance will clearly mean that FED has been financing the U.S budget deficit. It will probably not spur the inflation (at least in the following months), but it will definitely undermine reputation of the world's most respective financial institution.

EUR/PLN is still stable.

There were almost no moves on EUR/PLN in the last two days. The market is obviously waiting for the next week MPC meeting results. In consequence of a slight rebound on EUR/USD we had also a correction on USD/PLN. I don't expect the volatility to increase till the end of the week. Even if we move briefly above/below 4.19-4.15 level it is possible that before the MPC meeting EUR/PLN will come back to the well known range trade.

In today's monthly summary (around 16.00 CET) I will focus on the hypothetical Committee decision taking into account the recent statements, previous voting, macro data, and probable inflation projection.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the recent move around 1.3120 is only a correction and technical analysis still predicts the downside trend. The next support level (mainly psychological) is 1.3000 and then between 1.2900-1.2840 (head and shoulder target, 50% Fibonacci retarcement level and 200 DMA). The comeback to the bullish trend is possible after moving above 1.3300 (currently low probability). According to technical analysis all rallies below 1.3300 should be used to open short positions.

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: the recent moves strengthens the range trade trend. The base scenario is the range trade between 4.1500 and 4.1900 levels. The break down will result in test of 4.1200 and breakout increases the odds toward 4.2300 move.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: similarly to EUR/USD the recent move is only a correction. The base scenario is a move toward 3.24-3.27 (between 200 DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level has been fulfilling. The comeback to the bearish trend is possible after sliding under 3.1000 (low probability now).

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the move over 3.4100 is a bullish sign with the target at 3.4800 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). The move can be stopped by 3.4300 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), but taking into the account the long range trade and the recent upside move it is more possible that we move toward 3.4800.