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Daily analysis 20.02.2013

20 Feb 2013 10:01|Marcin Lipka

Much better then expected ZEW reading and another multi-year highs on U.S markets allowed EUR/USD to rebound over 1.3400 mark. The FED minutes is in focus today. Investors will also try to position themselves ahead of Thursday's PMI data from Europe. The zloty gained ground after stronger domestic production and German ZEW index report.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time):

  • 14.30 CET: Housing starts in the U.S (survey 920k)
  • 14.30 CET: Building permits in the U.S (survey 920k)
  • 20.00 CET: FED minutes form January 29-30 FOMC meeting

ZEW and another highs on S&P 500. PMI on Thrusday.

Yesterday's trading on EUR/USD was a bit timid in the morning, but the market was moved after the ZEW hit the wires at 11.00 CET. The index of German analysts sentiment surprised again on the plus side and soared to three year high (48 points), whereas the Bloomberg survey predicted the gain only to 35 points. Due to a quite strong correlation between ZEW, PMI and IFO (please look at the bottom chart: /eng/news/daily-analysis/daily-analysis-18-02-2013 ) we can also expect strong performance from other two indicators. EUR/USD was also quite successfully exploit the new mulit-year highs on U.S equities (partly also thanks to strong reading from Germany). S&P 500 is only 23 points (around 1.5%) from all time highs at 1553 points. The global markets can also receive some help to march higher from today's U.S housing data. Tomorrow we have a preliminary readings of German, French and Euro Zone PMIs. Analysts expect that German Purchasing Manager's Index will rise to one year highs at 50.5 points ( 50 mark separates expansion from contraction). If it beats the survey or at least exceed the 50 level we can expect a boost to EUR/USD rate.

Minutes at 20.00 CET.

It is rather unlikely that we get any new data from today's Minutes. The FOMC is probably still concerned about an elevated unemployment and weak growth. On the other hand The Federal Reserve does not probably see any threat from inflation so the FED will maintain its monetary policy and QE at 85 billion on the monthly basis (after the routine change of 2 members the body seems to be even more dovish). Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna, cited by Bloomberg, wrote in the not to clients that “Minutes won't suggest FED is ready to slow $85b/mo pace of purchases”. He also added that “Deutsche expects FED to slow QE pace by June, halt buying altogether by Dec”. On the other hand Stephan Halmarick a head of investment-market research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management in today's The Wall Street Journal predicts that FED will leave QE till the end of the year. He also claimed that it is premature to see any talks in the Minutes regarding the cots of QE.

The zloty gained on ZEW, industrial production and U.S. equities performance.

The positive surprise from industrial output data from Poland (slight increase vs minus 3% y/y estimates) gave some relief to zloty. Additionally the earlier ZEW reading and later S&P record breaking levels also improved sentiment on the Polish currency. The PLN slide from 4.19 to 4.16 per euro was a substantial move taking into the account the recent low volatility. I expect that the zloty will be shaped by global sentiment till the end of the week. If the Thursday's and Friday's data from Germany is strong, I would see even a successful test of 4.1500 to the downside. On the other hand if we don't see any strong impulse from the broader market, the Monday's retail sales can also surprise to the upside (after the output) and therefore give another argument to MPC members to halt the easing or clearly indicate that the March cut would be the last one. In such scenario we can see a stronger PLN in the medium term.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.3350-1.3450 1.3450-1.3550 1.3250-1.3350
EUR/PLN 4.1500-4.1900 4.1400-4.1800 4.1600-4.2000
USD/PLN 3.0900-3.1300 3.0700-3.1100 3.1300-3.1700
CHF/PLN 3.3600-3.4000 3.3700-3.4100 3.3800-3.4200

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the rebound to over 1.3400 level is positive for bulls, but to generate a buy signal we should move over 1.3500 mark. The support level at 1.3320-50 is still actual and move lower is preferred by technical analysis. The next short term stop can be expected around 1.3290-60 (50 DMA and low levels from mid January). It is also worth to mention the trend line (green) which is close to 1.3300. If EUR/USD falls under 13260 then we can expect the move toward 1.3080 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and highs from December 2012 and lows from the beginning of January).


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: the slide under 4.1800 is a bearish signal and negates the recent upside move. The base scenario now is a range trade between 4.15-4.19. The breakout over 4.1900 will again generate a buy signal and slide under 4.1500 can suggest that it will come back under 4.1200 level.


Technical analysis USD/PLN: the 3.1400 resistance stopped USD/PLN upside march and caused the comeback toward 3.1000. If it breaks down 3.1000 it will generate the sell signal with the target around 3.0500. The comeback over 3.1400 will preferred bulls again with the target even at 3.25-3.27.


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the resistance at 3.4100 successfully stopped the pair for going hither. CHF/PLN came back to the range between 3.36-3.40. The slide under 3.3300 will generate the sell signal and the comeback over 3.4100 is an argument for bulls to open long positions.


20 Feb 2013 10:01|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

19 Feb 2013 9:52

Daily analysis 19.02.2013

18 Feb 2013 9:57

Daily analysis 18.02.2013

15 Feb 2013 10:35

Daily analysis 15.02.2013

14 Feb 2013 10:01

Daily analysis 14.02.2013

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