__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
The last surveys before tomorrow's referendum will set the sentiment in the afternoon, as well as the evening. Yellen was cautious and Draghi was neutral in their testimonies from yesterday. Due to a relatively positive market sentiment, the euro is slightly below the 4.40 level before noon.
Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.
Surveys and bookies' quotations
Considering the fact that we are ahead of the year event in the currency market tomorrow, its participants seem quite relaxed. Moreover, they estimate the risk of Brexit to a smaller degree.
However, our suggestions from the past few days have partly confirmed yesterday. They stated that even if Brexit occurs, the survey results may be surprising. The phone survey made by the Survation/Igcom, only showed a 1% advantage for the EU supporters. The reaction of the pound was visible (approximately 50 pbs decrease), but it was temporary. The zloty wore-off by more than 0.03 PLN against the euro as well. However, this depreciation was also decreased rather quickly.
The element that sustains the optimism, is the fact that investors are probably not paying much attention to the bookies quotations. Currently, they are dependent on surveys to a minor degree, and most of all they seem a result of incoming bets. The bets, on the other hand, are assuming, basically in their entirety (even 95% - the Ladbrokes data from Monday), the failure of Brexit. As a result, we can observe a rather self-perpetuating optimism. Despite that even if Brexit is not the base case scenario, the risk remains quite significant. However, this risk is estimated to a surprisingly minor degree.
The optimism can, however, fade away quite quickly. Especially considering that surveys show mixed results one day before the referendum. According to the official announcement from Opinium, it will publish an online survey today, at approximately 17.30 CET. If it shows at least a 2-3% advantage for the Brexit supporters, the anxieties may return. Moreover, the amount of optimists can suddenly decrease, and this will probably deteriorate the market sentiment significantly.
Reuters wrote that we should expect the results of the phone survey by ComRes for the ITV television, as well as for the Daily Mail today. We can expect them to appear later this evening. However, this information is not yet confirmed. Additionally, it is possible that we will see the results of other surveys that have not been previously announced.
A draw in the phone survey, as well as a small victory of the Brexit supporters in the online survey, are sufficient enough to change the investors attitude. This is quite possible, even if the EU supporters eventually win. This was shown by the few past days, as well as the referendum in Scotland two years ago.
Yellen and Draghi
It does not happen often, but the testimonies of two chairs of the world's main central banks (Fed and ECB) have overlapped yesterday. Janet Yellen's testimony in the American Senate was more interesting regarding the future monetary policy. However, it did not bring many new facts.
The Fed chairwoman sounded quite cautious, just as she did during the summary of the recent Federal Reserve meeting. She took note of the worse payrolls readings, the danger of Brexit, and the low productivity of the American economy. On the other hand, we could hear the arguments that the weakness of the labor market may only be a temporary disturbance. Moreover, if we assume the base case scenario, the matter of Brexit will probably not be discussed anymore in July.
Thus, with both of the above dangers gone, it is possible that the topic of the hikes will be back on the table quite quickly. This is even considering that the Fed is cautious currently. On the other hand, Maro Draghi's testimony in the European Parliament was rather neutral. The ECB chairman was focusing on what has been done, as well as what effects has it brought, rather than additional elements of the Monetary Policy that may appear in the future.
A few words about the currency market
A quite relaxed attitude of investors may seem surprising. Especially considering that the forthcoming surveys may cause a sudden nervousness, as well as a significant overvalue of instruments that are dependent on the British pound. Even if eventually the United Kingdom remains within the European Union, the quotations can change significantly in the next few hours.
Volatile zloty
The yesterday EUR/PLN increase by more than 0.03 PLN was only determined by the Survation/Igcom survey. This goes to show, to what degree is the Polish currency sensitive to the matters related to the British referendum. Regarding this, it is worth remembering of at least two new surveys (more details in the above paragraphs) that may significantly impact the PLN quotations.
Moreover, we need to keep in mind that the risk remains unbalanced. If Brexit occurs, we may see the EUR/PLN, as well as the CHF/PLN, at the level of 4.60 and 4.40, respectively. On the other hand, if the United Kingdom remains within the European Union, depreciation of the main currencies will probably be limited, and it will close itself within the range of 0.05-0.07 PLN.
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Daily analysis 21.06.2016
Afternoon analysis 20.06.2016
Daily analysis 20.06.2016
Daily analysis 17.06.2016
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account