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Daily analysis 21.06.2016

21 Jun 2016 13:13|Marcin Lipka

The recent surveys are mixed. However, they seem to confirm the turn towards a support for the United Kingdom to remain within the European Union. Janet Yellen's testimony in the Senate will attract attention in the afternoon. The zloty remains stable against the main currencies.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.

  • 16.00: Janet Yellen's testimony in front of the American Senate.

Surveys indicate bigger chances for UK to remain within EU

Three new surveys regarding the British referendum appeared since last evening. In general, they indicate that the tendency that has started at the end of last week continues. However, its scale is probably not as large as it is suggested by quotations of bookies. According to Oddschecker, as well as Bloomberg, the risk of Brexit decreased to the area of 25%.

The most significant out of the above mentioned three surveys, is the phone survey conducted by the ORB/The Telegraph. It showed a 7% advantage for the EU supporters (53% vs 46%). One week ago, the survey that was conducted the same way, showed a 1% advantage for the Brexit supporters.

Theoretically, the survey conducted by NatCen Social Research could bring much information. It lasted for approximately one month, and combined online method with phone method. The NatCen survey shows a 53% support for the EU, and a 47% support for Brexit. However, it seems that it has a serious flaw. This is the fact that 65% of surveys were made between May 16th and 26th, and that is quite a long time ago. Thus, the survey's value regarding examination of the current tendency may be limited. This is even considering that its result may be similar to what we will see after the referendum.

On the other hand, the YouGov/The Times survey could cause certain anxieties. It was conducted between June 17th and 19th, and it showed a 2% advantage for the Brexit supporters. Moreover, in comparison to the results of surveys conducted between June 16th and 17th, the number of the EU supporters decreased by 2%, and the number of the Brexit supporters increased by 1%.

However, the YouGov/The Times was conducted online. This decreases its actual impact. Unfortunately it has not been combined with a phone survey, which was already done by the YouGov in the past.

Summarizing the surveys, the ORB survey shows that the advantage for the EU supporters is relatively high, and the YouGov data is rather unlikely to change this approach. The Survation/IGcom survey will be worth noting this afternoon (at 14.30). It is most likely to be the last one of phone surveys. In a similar survey made five days ago, the Brexit supporters got 45%, the EU supporters got 42%, and 13% of respondents did not knew how they will vote. If today's results are near the ones that the ORB published yesterday (at least a 5% advantage for the EU supporters), the possible market risk will continue to decrease.

On the other hand, if the Survation/IGcom publication is similar to the one from the past few days, it may cause a sudden change in sentiments, as well as overvalue of the pound that will increase the uncertainty before the referendum on Thursday. In the end, it is also worth remembering that the initial estimations will be announced shortly after closing of the polling stations, despite the previous speculations. Exit polls will be conducted by YouGov. During the Scottish referendum, the YouGov survey was near the final result. Thus, it is possible that the market will react immediately after the voting ends.

Yellen's testimony

The market has been basically only focusing on the British referendum for a longer time. However, Janet Yellen's testimony in the American Senate is scheduled for this afternoon. Investors will try to find out, whether the hikes in July are possible. This is of course considering that the United Kingdom remains in the EU, and the labor market data from June will return to the trend from the past years.

If the market hears such a suggestion, we may expect that a capital flow to the dollar. Even if the hikes occur in September instead of July, the suggestion that such move may occur during the forthcoming weeks, should be positive for the American currency as well. This is considering that the market is currently not even estimating the monetary tightening at the level of 25 bps before February 2017.

Zloty is stable

After the appreciation on Friday, as well as on Monday, the zloty is relatively stable. Moreover, the majority of transactions on the EUR/PLN is made below the level of 4.40. Considering the general skepticism towards the Polish currency, we will rather not see its visible consolidation before the referendum. This is even if the risk of Brexit decreases. However, if it appears that the United Kingdom actually remains within the European Union, the EUR/PLN should go slightly below 4.35, and the CHF/PLN may reach the range of 3.97-4.00.

Out of the news from Poland, it is worth noting today's statement from professor Adam Glapinski. The new MPC chairman claims that there will be no Brexit. However, if the Brits actually decide to leave the EU, “it will not impact the economy, but it may impact the zloty,” claimed Glapinski.

21 Jun 2016 13:13|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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Daily analysis 16.06.2016

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