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Daily analysis 19.11.2012

19 Nov 2012 9:36|Marcin Lipka

EUR/USD should be positively influenced by the tomorrow’s Euro-group summit. Friday's optimistic info concerning the fiscal cliff should also boost the common currency and PLN.

Macro data:

  • 16.00 CET: existing home sales (U.S.)

Positive information concerning the fiscal cliff are helping the stock market and EUR / USD.

President Obama's meeting on Friday with representatives of the Congress of the United States came closer to the fiscal cliff solution. After the conference both Democrats and Republicans have suggested that an agreement is possible. However, I do not expect the debate on austerity, and raising taxes to end soon. Both sides need to save face in this fight and show their commitment. A good measure of market faith in approaching the resolution will be reaction of stocks and bonds. If the yield on U.S. Treasury securities will rise (prices fall), it will mean the transfer of assets to Wall Street. The Big Board is suppose to be the largest beneficiary of the agreement. Up side move on stocks should also have a positive impact on the euro and the Polish zloty (improve global sentiment).

Crucial decision concerning Greece tomorrow.

We will see a solution much faster (at least short-term one) on Greek debt issues. On Tuesday the second this month Euro-group/IMF meeting begins in Brussels . The majority analysts claim that the Eur-ozone finance ministers will not take radical steps before elections in Germany (October 2013). The IMF has been suggesting for some time that the best solution would be partial debt write-down of which the largest creditors are the ECB the EFSF and the IMF. The European leaders, however argue that this option is not being currently considered and suggest that Athens can receive assistance in the form of longer repayment period, lower interest on existing debt and additional loans in order to buy the under-priced bonds. I think it's much more likely the Euro-group position will be launched. Similarly to the cliff fiscal case, the decision to postpone the problem for a year should definitely help the common currency. The EUR/USD and PLN can start rising today concerning the Tuesday’s decision.

PLN resistant to BRE Bank forecast. Only the global sentiment matters.

The Thursday's BRE bank prediction on radical economic slowdown in Poland (annual GDP in the range of 0.0-0.5%) and the possible entry into a technical recession (two quarters of negative growth) hasn't caused any reaction on the market. The Bloomberg Polish GDP growth consensus is still around time at 2% y/y. Similar estimates has been recently published by the European Commission (1.8% y/y). Polish zloty should still be mainly dependent on global risk appetite and EUR/USD rate. If Tuesday's Greek decision will please the market and more positive news will hit the wires PLN can appreciate even to 4.1000 per euro.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.2550-1.2650 1.2650-1.2750 1.2750-1.2850
EUR/PLN 4.2000-4.1700 4.1700-4.1400 4.1600-4.1300
USD/PLN 3.3300-3.2900 3.2800-3.2400 3.2600-3.2200
CHF/PLN 3.5000-3.4700 3.4700-3.4400 3.4400-3.4200

Technical analysis EUR/USD: resisted the downside move on Friday closing above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). If the common currency breaks 200 DMA (1.2808) it can spur the move to 1.2920. Falling under 1.2700 can initiate fast slide to around 1.2600. In the coming days the technical analysis still favors the downside move.


Technical analysis EUR/PLN: EUR/PLN was not able to move upwards, what is seen as bears advantage. Currently the comeback to 4.1200 (under 50 DMA, down trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci retarcement level) will negate the month long upside move. However, breaking upwards 4.1750 (200 DMA) is a strong bullish signal.


Technical analysis USD/PLN: the bullish trend is still strong on USD/PLN. The recent downside move is still seen as a correction. It is still more possible to rise toward 3.3000 then move back to 3.2000 levels.


Technical analysis CHF/PLN: CHF similarly to EUR was loosing ground to PLN. However, the upside move is still more possible and the comeback above 200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is still more possible then the slide to 3.4000 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 50 DMA).


19 Nov 2012 9:36|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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