__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The EUR/USD is still holding above 1.3100 level. The statement form Bernanke was rather dovish yesterday. Today we are expecting more news from Fed's chairman. Some remarks on the budget deficit. Production data from Poland were above expectations but the market reaction was muted.
Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
Bernanke statement was rather dovish. Today the 2nd part
It was a good idea to stay away from the market during Bernanke performance. Both bears and bulls didn't have enough willingness to move the EUR/USD, and we ended the day near the opening levels. It does not mean, however, that we didn't get any hints from Fed's Chairman. In line with expectations Federal Reserve chief stressed that QE tapering would depend on the economic conditions. He also confirmed that the interest rates would not be raised automatically even if the unemployment drops under 6.5%. Getting into more details it is worth to cite The Wall Street Journal article “What Bernanke means”. Jon Hilsenrath perfectly described what Fed's Chief wanted to suggest the markets. The author notes that Bernanke focused more on the economic growth threats (its vulnerability to fiscal tightening and weaker global expansion) what can be seen as quite dovish. Moreover the Chairman emphasized that “If a substantial part of the reductions in measured unemployment were judged to reflect cyclical declines in labor force participation rather than gains in employment, the committee would be unlikely to view a decline in unemployment to 6.5 percent (unemployment rate) as a sufficient reason to raise its target for the federal funds rate” (also pretty dovish). At the end Hilsenrath stressed that Bernanke noted a negative implications of too low inflation (dovish sign). It is also worth to note that the Q&A part was rather boring. None of the Congressman pushed Bernanke for more precise answer regarding the QE (like on May 22nd).
Summarizing Bernanke's statement was rather more dovish then expected. Today we have the second day of the hearings. At the beginning of the European session is pretty optimistic so if Fed's Chairmen does not disappoint we can continue to rise on the EUR/USD and fell on US treasuries yields.
The zloty is depended on the Fed
At the beginning I would like to focus on the zloty move after the Fed's chairman statement was released. A chart on the bottom shows EUR/PLN and US 10-year treasuries performance last afternoon. The Polish currency strengthened around 0.02 PLN and the US treasuries yields dropped around 8bps. Additionally the zloty didn't react to the production data despite it was better then expected (3% y/y vs estimates of 1.5% y/y). It confirms that most of the PLN moves are initiated on the base markets.
A wider budget deficit is still heavily commented in Poland. Some government officials are trying to push the blame on the central bank that it didn't cut the interest rates fast enough. Others have also interesting ideas regarding the future monetary policy. The economy minister Janusz Piechociński told today Polish state TV TVP info that NBP “has a room to cut the rate to 1%”. It was pretty strange especially that the MPC ended the easing cycle and according to many institutions (also Ministry of Economy and NBP) both inflation and GDP growth will pick up slowly toward the end of the year.
Today the Polish zloty should be traded around 4.25 per euro. Only in case of stronger moves on US treasuries or the EUR/USD it can deviate more from that level.
Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate
Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate.
The EUR/USD is still bullish. All Polish pairs are in bearish trends.
Technical analysis EUR/USD: the EUR/USD moved quite substantially last. It broke many resistance levels and stopped around 1.32. The upside trend dominates now with target at 1.3200 and support around 1.3070. The next support is around 1.2950. If we fall under that level is should generate a sell signal with a target around 1.28..
Technical analysis EUR/PLN: it fell under 4.28 where a sell signal was generated. The target is 4.22 now. Alternatively a rise over 4.32 gives a buy signal again.
Technical analysis USD/PLN: A fall under 3.28 was a sell signal. The USD/PLN target is 3.18-3.14 now. A comeback above 3.34 again favors bulls.
Technical analysis CHF/PLN:the sell signal was generated after falling under 3.48. The target is 3.42 now. Alternatively the rise over 3.52 should be bullish.
Technical analysis GBP/PLN: the sell signal was generated after sliding under 4.97 with a target around 4.9 and in extension even toward 4.8. Alternatively a rise over 5.04 is an indication of bulls' return.
See also:
Daily analysis 17.07.2013
Daily analysis 16.07.2013
Daily analysis 15.07.2013
Daily analysis 12.07.2013
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.