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Daily analysis 05.11.2012

5 Nov 2012 18:01|Marcin Lipka

EUR/USD depreciates even though the data from U.S was better than expected. Political risk in Greece and the election in the States weighted on the euro dollar.

On Friday the market was mainly waiting for the NFP from the US. The reading was above the market expectations (survey: 125K; actual: 171). Strong data spur the rise of S&500 futures contacts by a few points, but just after the opening of the regular market the rally faded and session ended with losses around 1%. Better then expected data didn't affect the EUR/USD. The slide started at the beginning of European session continued after the U.S has opened. It was clearly seen that investors were concerned about the Greece situation, and the outcome of U.S election

Voting in the Greece Parliament concerning the austerity package is expected on November 7th.

It is possible that on November 7th the Greek case will be solved. On Wednesday the parliament in Athens is expected to hold the voting on the austerity measures. If the date does not change and the Prime Minister convinces his coalition partners to another „belt tightening” it will probably lift the EUR/USD. On the other hand if the positive scenarios fails it will worsen the the global sentiment and can return concerns of possible Euro Zone break up.

The influence of the U.S election on the common currency is a question mark.

The impact of the U.S election result is not so clear. If Obama wins it is suppose to weaken USD (The White House silent support of the FED ultra dovish monetary policy will remain unchanged), but at the same time the victory of the current President will slower the solution of the fiscal cliff and therefore worsen the sentiment. On the other hand if the GOP candidate wins it increases the chances concerning the budget issues (positive for the sentiment and weakens USD), but the relation between The White House and the FED can be more tense (can speed up the withdrawal of the ultra dovish monetary policy and will appreciate USD).

Polish zloty „is getting ready” to the Wednesday's interest rate decision.

On Friday the PLN resisted the downward pressure form EUR/USD slide. It is possible that today Polish currency will weaken by 0.02-0.03 PLN and adjust to the levels of the euro dollar and S&P 500. In the next days the zloty be depended on the global sentiment. Only on Wednesday all eyes will be focused on the decision of the MPC. The market has already priced in the decision to decrease the interest rates by 25 basis points. If the reduction is larger (i.e. 50bp), it can cause the fast depreciation of PLN by around 0.03 PLN.

Expected levels of the PLN depending on EUR/USD value:

EUR/USD 1.2850-1.2950 1.2950-1.3050 1.2750-1.2850

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the common currency is clearly going to the levels around 1.2730-1.2750 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). It is even possible that the move gets stronger, and EUR/USD will depreciate to around 1.2600 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). Move above 1.2950 will negate the downside move.

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: EUR/PLN bounced back from 50 DMA. If it breaks 4.1200 level will can quickly see the test of 4.1500 (down trend line). Coming back under 4.1000 will generate sell signal.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: on Friday the USD/PLN bounced back from 50 DMA and today broke the down trend line. It is possible that in the coming hours we will see 3.2400 (38.2 retracement level), and in the next few days test of 3.27-3.29 (50% Fibonacci retracement level, and 200 DMA).

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: if the pair breaks 3.4200 it will generate buy signal and move toward 3.4600 (200DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

5 Nov 2012 18:01|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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