Daily analysis 01.03.2013

Better-then-expected Chicago PMI, but worse than estimated revised GDP reading from the States and fears over the sequester resulted in pretty even session on equities. The EUR/USD was not eager to initiate any major correction and fell to around 1.3050 despite a rebound on peripheries debt. Today we have final European readings and U.S ISM data. The zloty is still stable before Q4 GDP and PMI reports.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted:

• Final PMI readings from Germany, France, and Eurozone
• PMIs from Italy and Spain
• 9.00 CET: manufacturing PMI from Poland (survey 49)
• 10.00 CET: GDP from Poland (survey 0.9% y/y) and (-0.1 q/q seasonally adjusted)
• 15.55 CET: Final University of Michigan Confidence index (survey 76.3)
• 16.00 CET: ISM manufacturing from the U.S (survey 52.5)

Stocks unchanged. EUR/USD again below 1.3100.

The U.S equities failed to continue the Wednesdays rally and ended the day fairly unchanged. The mixed data from the States also didn't help the investors to decide whether to buy or sell stocks. Some analyst anticipated that the mood can be improved by revised GDP reading. However, the data was reversed only to 0.1% which was much lower then the expectations of 0.5%. A bit of optimism came from Chicago PMI (strong reading, the highest since 11 months). It help stocks to gain ground due to a strong correlation with crucial ISM data (publication today), but the rally faded at the end of the day (mainly on the sequester fears). The euro was pretty weak yesterday and fell under 1.3100 again. The situation on the common currency does not look bright. There are very few reasons for the euro to rise, but many to fall (hawkish “Minutes”, unresolved political issues in Italy, possible rate cut in the Euro Zone, weak economy). There is a slim chance that today's data will change the mood. The PMIs from Germany, France and the Euro Zone will be close to its last week preliminary readings. Additionally the data from Italy and Spain are not expected to spur any rally on the common currency. It is worth to look at today's article from Financial Times regarding dollar/stocks correlation (“Dollar turns to follow US equities”). The usual relationship between equities and currencies (higher stocks, lower dollar value) can be diminishing. American managers prefer to invest domestically and “Federal Reserve policy provides support to US assets markets rather then this translating into broader risk appetite” says Ian Stannard, currency strategies at Morgan Stanley.

Polish PMI and GDP report in focus.

The zloty has been resilient to the recent EUR/USD moves. During the last month it closed every day between 4.15 and 4.19 level. However, the situation can change after next week MPC rate decision. Before the Committee decision on Wednesday, today in the morning we have some crucial data – PMI and Q4 GDP reading. Any better-then-expected report can support the Polish currency in anticipation that MPC will leave rate unchanged. In the monthly summary I did prepare the analysis of possible voting results on the next week decision. The summary will be available around 13.00 CET.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

Technical analysis EUR/USD: we are again below 1.3100 levels. The next support level (mainly psychological) is 1.3000 and then between 1.2900-1.2840 (head and shoulder target, 50% Fibonacci retarcement level and 200 DMA). The comeback to the bullish trend is possible after moving above 1.3300 (currently low probability). According to technical analysis all rallies below 1.3300 should be used to open short positions.

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: the recent moves strengthens the range trade trend. The base scenario is the range trade between 4.1500 and 4.1900 levels. The break down will result in test of 4.1200 and breakout increases the odds toward 4.2300 move.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: similarly to EUR/USD the recent was only a correction. The base scenario is a move toward 3.24-3.27 (between 200 DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level has been fulfilling. The comeback to the bearish trend is possible after sliding under 3.1000 (low probability now).

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the pair fall from 3.4100 to 3.3950 but the base scenario is still a rally toward 3.4800 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). The move can be stopped by 3.4300 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), but taking into the account the long range trade and the recent upside move it is more possible that we move toward 3.4800.