__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The SNB chief speech in Jackson Hole – Swiss franc is overvalued. Solid data from Germany and slightly higher inflation in the eurozone. The zloty remains stable in the afternoon.
The Swiss franc is overvalued
The main topic during the Jackson Hole meetings was inflation. Issues discussed by Thomas Jordan, the SNB chief, were also touching consumer prices. However, the Swiss central banker was also arguing about how hard it is to control the CPI in a small open economy.
The case is especially important during the post crisis period, after 2008. During that time, the appreciation of the local currency caused the prices to not move at all for 7 years. Thomas Jordan repeated many times that the franc is “overvalued” and “significantly overvalued”. There is, of course, the main question. By how much?
The single number wasn't clearly articulated. We can, however, assume it by analyzing one of the charts from Jordan’s materials. It shows the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the CHF for the last 40 years.
Real and nominal Swiss franc rate to 24 largest trading partners
The REER is one of the best measures of currency value and the benchmark whether the currency is under or overvalued. In that case, the CHF value is compared to the basket of 24 currencies of Switzerland’s main trading partners (grey line). The black line adds additionally the difference between Swiss inflation and other countries consumer prices. The only measure which is not included in the chart is competitiveness differences between economies.
Thomas Jordan wanted to show that the REER has never been as deviated from the balance levels as it is now. His suggestion is clear – it has to be corrected some time and by some amount. But whether it is going to be 10 or more than 20 percent remains an open question.
German and the eurozone data
Fairly good data was published today from Germany. The retail sales rose 3.3% y/y while economists expectations were close to a 1.7% gain. This may confirm that consumer spending in the largest EU economy returns to moderate growth. The 12-month moving average rose to 2.1% which is the best result since mid 2011.
Both the headline and core inflation from the eurozone were also higher. The difference in both cases was, however, only 0.1 of a percentage point and it should not have a significant impact on the common currency before Thursday's ECB meeting.
See also:
Daily analysis 31.08.2015
Afternoon analysis 28.08.2015.
Daily analysis 28.08.2015
Afternoon analysis 27.08.2015
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.