__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
The currency market is still strongly dependant on the condition of the stock markets. What will be the conclusion of the meeting in Jackson Hole? Tsipras loses support in Greece. The zloty remains under pressure to the main currencies, but the EUR/PLN should not cross the level of 4.25.
Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.
Jackson Hole in the centre of attention
The currency market is still strongly dependant on the events of the American stock markets. When the floors in the USA are showing increases, an appreciation of the dollar can be expected. Also, the value of the euro decreases. The European currency is considered as the one financing the carry trade. As a result, an overlap of these two movements, can cause relatively sudden changes on the EUR/USD over one day.
The above mentioned dependency should remain unchanged, also after the meeting of bankers in Jackson Hole. The general message from the monetary authorities (from the developed as well as emerging markets) will probably overlap with the approach of William Dudley.
The Fed takes note of the situation development in Asia and the dangers related to a slowdown in China. However, if the situation calms down, the Federal Reserve will return to the base case plan, which is an increase in interest rates by the end of the year. This information should come from the official testimonies, as well as interviews for the media.
In the case of this scenario being fulfilled, the approach at the beginning of next week should be relatively positive. This means appreciation of the American currency and even a test of the area of 1.1200 despite an increase in the main currency pair this morning.
On the other hand, if the weekend brings another deterioration in the situation of Asia, it will be much more difficult to calm the situation down. However, considering the recent events, as well as the active policy of the PBOC which revives the real economy, it is a very unlikely scenario.
Commotion in Greece
The Greek procedures regarding earlier elections demand appointing a new prime minister, who will be on the post until 20th of September. The person appointed to this position is the current chairwoman of the highest court, Vassiliki Thanou. However, nobody expects her to perform any changes before the end of the next month.
Thus, the game will be mainly about gaining support by Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza, and the New Democracy. What is interesting, the popularity of Tsipras decreases. According to the latest survey conducted by ProRata, published in the Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper, his support is 23% in comparison to the 26% gained on 2nd July. On the other hand, support for the New Democracy increases. The party's popularity grew from 15% to 19.5%.
This fact causes the chances for Tsipras’ independent reign to decrease. However, it currently does not lessen the probability of fulfilling the agreement between Greece and its creditors. Tsipras, as well as the New Democracy, support it. An unstable government can generate many problems for the country, including another election. However, the market should ignore this danger for the time being.
Few words about the foreign market
A conclusion from the central bankers' meeting in Jackson Hole should be close to what William Dudley recently presented. Also, the Bloomberg television will broadcast the interview with James Bullart at 13.30. Just a few weeks ago he supported the idea of hikes in September more than Dennis Lockhart, who recently smoothed out his standpoint. If Bullard also withdraws from the September term, this will practically decide about leaving the interest rates unchanged for at least the next two months.
However, there is a small chance that this event will harm the dollar. The American currency will rather be supported by the relatively positive comments after Jackson Hole.
Weakness and stabilisation at the same time
Quotations of the EUR/PLN remain relatively stable. However, it is worth noting that a significant overvalue of the EUR/USD should cause a slight depreciation of the EUR/PLN. It did not happen and the euro costs as much as it did in the last few days. On the other hand, the dollar clearly gained in value. This shows a general weakness of the national currency which may reverse only in the moment of a clear decrease in anxiety regarding Asia.
Today's session on the EUR/PLN should be relatively calm, and the range of fluctuations between 4.22-4.25 should be maintained. More variabilities can be observed on the dollar. However, before Saturday's testimony from Stanley Fisher, the changes on the wide market can be limited, in comparison to what has been observed over the past few days.
Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/USD rate:
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Afternoon analysis 27.08.2015
Daily analysis 27.08.2015
Afternoon analysis 26.08.2015
Daily analysis 26.08.2015
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account