__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
Jobless claims from USA remain positive. Surprisingly weak ISM index from the American industry. The zloty remains under pressure, despite that oday's data from Poland was better than expected.
Strong labor market
New data from the American labor market is positive. Weekly jobless claims remain in the area of 260k. This is very close to their many-year minimum. They are at the level of approximately 2.15 million, which is slightly above the lowest readings since the end of the 90s.
Accelerating data does not indicate disturbing signals for the labor market. This also increases the probability that tomorrow's payrolls will be near indications presented by the ADP. This fact should be favorable for the American currency as well.
However, it's worth keeping in mind the things we wrote about the Labor Department data. Its relatively small sample group (taking into consideration the population of enterprises) generates the risk of the data being deflected from the actual reading or the average.
The market will also try to evaluate the publications in the context of changes in salaries, as well as unemployment rate. The higher the increase in hourly wage, as well as the lower the unemployment level, the larger the chance that the American currency will increase its appreciation scale.
However, we think that the data will be relatively close to the consensus. This will cause the chances for rate hikes in September decrease. As a result, profitability of the American treasury bonds would decrease and the dollar would work-off its recent growths.
Negative signal from ISM and further wear-off of zloty
After 16.00 (4.00 PM), we received very weak data from the American industry. ISM, one of the basic accelerating indexes for the American industry, went down to the level of 49.4 points. These are the lowest readings since March and they suggest that the sector is shrinking.
Moreover, every crucial component has quoted a clear decline and went below the level of 50 points. New orders went down by 7.8 points (currently 49.1), and the production by 5.8 points (currently 49.6). Employment is at a lower level as well. However, the situation is not as dramatic in this case. Of course, one month doesn't have to mean that the trend has changed. But it will certainly be an argument for the Dovish Fed members to cease any moves at the September meeting.
The zloty did not take a chance to strengthen, despite better PMI readings. As a result, the EUR/PLN went above 4.3700 in the afternoon and the dollar has been testing the area of 3.93 PLN. However, we should especially focus on the pound. A positive global condition of the pound combined with weakness of the Polish currency, is causing the GBP/PLN to exceed the level of 5.2000. This is 0.30 PLN more than in the mid August.
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Daily analysis 01.09.2016
Afternoon analysis 31.08.2016
Daily analysis 31.08.2016
Afternoon analysis 30.08.2016
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account