__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Another surprise from the British economy. The United Kingdom PMI from industrial sector is growing at the fastest pace this year. The sentiment before the American data continues to support the dollar. The zloty remains under clear pressure against the foreign currencies.
Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.
Industrial PMI supports pound
The morning data from the British economy (just as many previous readings) show that the short-term negative impact of Brexit could have been overestimated by economists.
The PMI index for the British industry (prepared by IHS Markit and CIPS) has increased from 48.3 points to 53.3 points, against the estimated 49.0 points. A five-point growth during just one month has leveled the fastest increase of this index in twenty-five years. Moreover, the reading alone is at its highest level this year.
When looking at crucial components of the PMI index, each one of them has significantly improved. IHS Markit and CIPS state that, “the companies experienced a strong inflow of orders form the local, as well as the foreign market. Employment increased for the firs time this year.”
In his commentary regarding the data, Rob Dobson, Markit IHS senior economist, states that, “in July, the companies were informing about withholding their activity. Currently, this activity is returning and the companies, as well as the customers know that the business is coming back to its regular rhythm.”
The pound's weakness that was quoted during past few weeks, has translated to the fastest growth of production prices in five years. Moreover, a pace of this growth was one of the fastest in history. However, if we make attempts of summarizing the situation of PMI indexes, as well as their impact on the British currency, we will need to focus on a few matters.
Primarily, the readings that were published shortly after the referendum have clearly overestimated the short-term Brexit related risks. This fear appeared to be contagious for the Bank of England. The institution suddenly began to ease the monetary policy. Currently, we can claim that this decision was too anxious and it extended the sale of the British currency.
On the other hand, today's publication is causing the index to deflect to the other side. A stop in activity from the middle of this year is currently becoming reborn, which is indicated by the PMI index. However, the publication from services sector on Monday, will be very important for evaluation of the pound as well. If it also shows a rebound above the level of 50 points, the pound would continue its appreciation. The GBP/PLN may clearly exceed the 5.20 level.
The likelihood that the pound will continue its growths and return to the area of 1.50 on the GBP/USD during the coming months, remains relatively small. The main element that lays weigh on the pound, is the trading account deficit, as well the current account deficit at the level of 7% of the GDP. If the most recent wear-off of the pound does not limit the currency too much, pressure on the British currency would increase significantly.
Another element are the discussions regarding keeping the access to the EU market for the British financial sector. It has been generating a surplus within the entire services sector at the level of approximately 2.5% of the GDP. Therefore, if this activity is limited, the general deficit of current account does not have to decrease, even in case of a decrease in the trading account.
As a result, the pound should remain under pressure in the long-term. This is even regardless of internal problems, as well as the matter of Scotland. However, this topic is becoming more apropriate for the year 2017, instead of the fourth quarter of 2016 as we have previously assumed.
Sentiment before payrolls
Twenty-four hours before the data from the American Labor Department, the sentiment remains positive for the dollar. Also, profitability of two-year treasury bonds are relatively high (more than 0.8%). This is also supportive for the view that appreciation of the USD is justified.
However, this situation may change tomorrow. The expected readings (approximately 180k) may appear insufficient for rate hikes this month. Therefore, in order to extend growths on the USD, the result would have to be at the level of at least 220k-230k. Moreover, an increase in salaries would have to be clearly faster than the consensus (at least positive 2.7% y/y). If this is fulfilled, we may actually expect the chances for rate hikes to increase. This should continue to support the dollar. If not, a danger of work-off of the recent appreciation of the USD will significantly increase.
Zloty ignored positive PMI
The PMI index for the Polish industry that was published this morning is quite positive. It increased to the level of 51.5 points, against expectations that were one point higher. The index description made by Markit IHS is positive as well. The survey has taken not that, the pace of creating new workplaces has been fastest since March. Moreover, an increase in production size has been fueled by a rebound of export.
However, the Polish currency did not take advantage of positive data. This may be partially explained with a general deterioration of the sentiment towards emerging market currencies. However, over the past days the zloty has either been under internal or external pressure. Therefore it's not taking chances to work-off its losses. The zloty is most likely to remain under pressure against the main currencies and the forint, until the decision of Moody's on the 9th of September.
See also:
Afternoon analysis 31.08.2016
Daily analysis 31.08.2016
Afternoon analysis 30.08.2016
Daily analysis 30.08.2016
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.