__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
Friday's quotations up until midday were relatively calm, with a cautious dose of optimism in the broader market. Still, the number one topic for the market is the Eurogroup meeting on the European economic recovery package, which begins today.
Leaders are cautious
There are high hopes attached to this meeting, although the market does not necessarily expect to reach an agreement on the weekend. The country leaders also seem to be cooling their emotions slightly. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that "the differences [between countries] remain very, very big" and she expects tough negotiations.
One of the countries with a slightly more frugal approach is the Netherlands. Its Prime Minister Mark Rutte, in an interview with Bloomberg TV before the summit, estimated the chances of reaching an agreement this weekend at below 50%.
Even if the agreement is not achieved this weekend, it still seems highly probable that it will be finally reached anyway, perhaps with some concessions to the group of countries not agreeing to support the economies that were in a weak fiscal position even before the pandemic.
Given the information received so far, the possible conclusion of an agreement would be a positive surprise and would have the potential to increase optimism in the market on Monday.
A strong euro favourable to the zloty
Today, the euro remains in good condition. The EUR/USD quotations increased to around 1.1420, about 0.35% above yesterday's closing, and are at the upper end of the volatility range since the second week of March. These are still favourable conditions for the zloty, which is one of the best-performing currencies in the group of emerging countries.
The USD/PLN quotations are around 3.92 PLN, and the EUR/PLN is about 4.48 PLN. Although we can expect increased volatility in the afternoon as US investors become more active and US consumer sentiment data are published in July, we might wait until Monday for larger movements. The chances for a negative scenario after the weekend are very limited, as is the likelihood of a significant weakening of the zloty.
Promising increases in employment and wages
Today, macro data from the Polish economy also help the zloty. According to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), employment in June rose by 0.2% compared to May, although it was expected to fall by 0.5%, and the average wage in the enterprise sector rose by 3.2%, clearly above the expected 1.3%.
These are positive signs for a return to the pre-pandemic economy. Most likely, however, the road will still be long, rocky and highly dependent on what happens not only in Poland, but also in Europe and around the world.
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Interest rates in the eurozone without changes (Afternoon analysis 16.07.2020)
Mixed data from China (Daily analysis 16.07.2020)
Industrial production in the USA as a positive surprise (Afternoon analysis 15.07.2020)
The euro gets stronger and stronger (Daily analysis 15.07.2020)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account