The zloty index by Cinkciarz.pl. June 2015. Part 1

In May, the weakening zloty was improving the competitiveness of export on almost every market. Even though the advantageous tendency for the exporters lasts from the beginning of spring, in long perspective the Polish currency still remains relatively strong in relation to the currencies of the most important trading partners.

In May, the price competitiveness of the Polish export has improved in relation to April on almost every market. The only exception is the increase of the Cinkciarz.pl Index for the emerging markets countries (excluding Russia and Ukraine). The same tendencies are indicated by the real indexes.

A look at price competitiveness of the Polish export from the last year's perspective, shows that we are dealing with a nominal increase of the zloty's value on all markets. On the other hand, the real indexes – which include the difference in inflation – show a wide improvement of Polish export's competitiveness. The only exception is the competitiveness on the markets of central-eastern Europe, and the Scandinavian countries.

The currency crisis that touched Russia and Ukraine in the turn of the year, has lead to a very big weakening of the Polish export's competitiveness, in case of the central-eastern Europe countries. In forthcoming time, this factor will impact negatively on the quantity of export on this region's markets. However, when looking at it from the perspective of single countries – for example Czech Republic – quite good results of the exporters are visible.

Cinkciarz.pl Index for the middle-eastern Europe countries, has indicated a decrease of the zloty's value for three months. In case of a real index, we are observing a similar tendency. In real presentation, the zloty has enforced in relation to the last year by 2.1 percent (in January it was 6.2 percent).

Even though the results achieved by the exporters in the first quarter of 2015 are optimistic, one can indicate a few disadvantageous events. First of all, we are dealing with a decrease of export to the Scandinavian countries. This trading partner's significance equals the United Kingdom. At the same time we are observing a significant enforcement of the zloty to the Scandinavian currencies, which is one of the reasons of the above situation.

Another matter is a very strong increase of Germany's significance, as the most important trading partner. The successes achieved by the Polish companies behind our western boarder are very satisfying. However, basing on just one trading partner brings a potential danger from the perspective of the whole economy. This matter will be discussed wider in the further part of this report.

Conclusion: Cinkciarz.pl Indexes and the changes of indexes

Chart: Value of the nominal index. Data: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Change of the nominal index year to year (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Change of the nominal index month to month (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Value of the real index. Data: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Change of the real index year to year (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Change of the real index month to month (in percent). Data: Cinkciarz.pl

Resume: export and contribution in export divided on the baskets

Chart: Change of export month to month (in percent). Data: GUS; Analysis: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Change of export year to year (in percent). Data: GUS; Analysis: Cinkciarz.pl

Chart: Contribution of the basket in general export (in percent). Data: GUS; Analysis: Cinkciarz.pl

Content of the currency baskets

Chart: Content of country's baskets. Source: Cinkciarz.pl