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The zloty appreciates in relation to the dollar (Daily analysis 28.05.2020)

28 May 2020 14:59|Bartosz Grejner

The continued weakness of the dollar supports the Polish currency. The zloty is closer to "pre-pandemic" levels than those from two weeks ago. The USD/PLN pair is just above the 4.00 boundary.

The dollar stabilises the market

Thursday's morning quotations did not bring any significant changes - positive sentiments still prevail in connection with the "opening" of economies. The macroeconomic calendar, which is quite empty in the case of significant events, is also conducive to maintaining good sentiment. For the market, which may slowly start to take notice of the incoming data that include a period of lesser restrictions, the next Friday may be important, when we will learn the report on the US labour market for May.

These limited fluctuations, especially in currency quotations, were also observed today. The sales pressure on the dollar led the EUR/USD exchange rate to the limit of 1.10 (the upper range of quotations from the end of March). Maintaining this level supports the stabilisation of, among others, emerging country currencies (EM), and since the dollar is weaker today than, e.g. in mid-May, this is stabilisation with higher values for most EM currencies.

The zloty is clearly stronger

The zloty also profits from these circumstances. The USD/PLN exchange rate fluctuates close to 4.00 PLN, and the last time it was below this value was in mid-March. The EUR/PLN exchange rate, on the other hand, is in the range of approx. 4.41-4.43 and is also closer to pre-pandemic levels (approx. 4.30) than two weeks ago (approx. 4.55-4.57).

The currently increased appetite for risk and the globally stronger euro (due to, among other things, the announced stimulus package for the EU) weaken the Swiss franc. The EUR/CHF quotations are just below the 1.07 boundary, while not more than two weeks ago they were at 1.05, the lowest level since 2015.

The Swiss currency was gradually but clearly appreciating before the outbreak of the pandemic. Current levels made it possible to return to the situation of early March, even though today the market is dominated by strong optimism. In turn, the CHF/PLN exchange rate fell to around 4.1340 PLN today and is the lowest level since mid-March. A reduction of optimism in the broader market may increase demand for the franc again.

28 May 2020 14:59|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

27 May 2020 18:18

The dollar and the franc depreciate, the zloty appreciate. Geopolitics in the background (Afternoon analysis 27.05.2020)

27 May 2020 14:48

The EU stimulus package improves sentiment (Daily analysis 27.05.2020)

26 May 2020 17:44

A strong appreciation of the zloty: the pound is quoted below 5 PLN (Afternoon analysis 26.05.2020)

26 May 2020 14:30

High level of optimism (Daily analysis 26.05.2020)

Attractive exchange rates of 27 currencies