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The U.S. dollar climbs despite strong risk appetite (Daily analysis 3.02.2021)

3 Feb 2021 9:44|Bartosz Sawicki

The risk environment remains benign, yet the U.S. dollar trades firm. Crude oil benchmarks maintain an upward trajectory and equities bounce.

The EUR/USD pair is close to 1.20 mark, and the USD/JPY is glued to 105.00 area. Rising commodity prices have helped the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar withstand the U.S. dollar's revival.

The New Zealand dollar remains supported as well due to the good performance of the jobs market. The unemployment rate declined in Q4. Therefore further monetary easing should not be taken for granted. Interestingly, the Russian ruble fails to benefit from the recent spike of oil prices due to social unrest and the threat of sanctions after Aleksey Navalny was sentenced. The Russian currency, which performed strongly in Q4 2020, may face further headwinds as market positioning looks stretched and further nervousness might trigger a knee-jerk reaction.

On the contrary, the Polish zloty continues its mini-rally. The EUR/PLN declined below 4.50, a level that had previously been perceived as likely to push the National Bank of Poland to buy foreign currencies. The latest developments have made today's MPC meeting a little more interesting. Other key events to monitor are U.S. data releases: ADP employment report and ISM services index.

3 Feb 2021 9:44|Bartosz Sawicki

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

2 Feb 2021 10:28

The USD trades bid (Daily analysis 2.02.2021)

29 Jan 2021 10:43

US dollar heads for a monthly gain (Daily analysis 29.01.2021)

28 Jan 2021 10:39

The ECB stole the show (Daily analysis 28.01.2021)

27 Jan 2021 10:53

The pound sterling hits long-term highs (Daily analysis 27.01.2021)

Attractive exchange rates of 27 currencies