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Stable situation on the zloty (Afternoon analysis 28.01.2019)

28 Jan 2019 15:43|Bartosz Grejner

The dollar remains weaker as the expectations for interest rate hikes in the US fall. However, the second part of the week may be important for the euro and the dollar. The Polish currency remains within a narrow fluctuation range, although it may expand on Wednesday.

EUR/USD still around 1.14

The new week started with small changes in the currency market. The calendar of scheduled events is almost empty, which supports stability. A talk by Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), before the European Parliament, which will start at 4:00 p.m., may introduce some volatility to the euro's quotations. Although, on Thursday only, the ECB held a press conference with him, which did not resonate very much. The market meticulously analyses Draghi's statements.

The euro is in an unusual situation - very weak macroeconomic data is coming from the eurozone economy, while the single currency appreciated significantly on Friday. The euro/dollar quotations rose above 1.14 level. Today the changes were very limited, but the exchange rate rose to around 1.1430, the highest level since January 18th. This is the result of a relatively weak US currency, which is mainly caused by a reduction in expectations regarding interest rate increases in the USA and the partial government shutdown.

In the coming months, the first factor will depend to a large extent on incoming data from the US economy. The second factor, however, the longer it lasts, the greater the negative impact it has on GDP growth. In the short term, the dollar may be slightly weaker, although it is likely to strengthen in the coming year, due to the much better condition of the US economy and the eurozone.

Among these events, the zloty remains stable all the time. The changes were limited today, with the exception of the pound, which lost in relation to most currencies to the greatest extent - the GBP/PLN fell to about 4.93 today. Relatively large fluctuations in the British currency overnight can be considered a norm, however, at least until the Brexit solution that the United Kingdom will want to follow is clarified. The zloty basket, on the other hand, may be subject to greater fluctuations in the second part of the week (from Wednesday), when significant macroeconomic data from Europe and the USA will begin to flow into the market.

Tomorrow's preview

Tomorrow's calendar of macroeconomic publications is practically empty. Tomorrow, the most important events will be those in the British Parliament. Prime Minister Theresa May will face a real battle and many votes. Therefore, we can expect significant fluctuations in the pound, especially in the second part of the day. The British currency has been appreciating practically since the beginning of January, although a continuation of this upward trend would most likely require confidence in the orderly form that the Brexit will take. As long as the chaotic Brexit variant is still possible (although unlikely), the potential increase in the pound's value will be limited, with a significant level of fluctuation.

28 Jan 2019 15:43|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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