Stabilisation (Daily analysis 13.04.2018)

The euro is again a little stronger in relation to the dollar. High surplus in the euro area goods account. The S&P Global Ratings decision for Poland. The zloty continues to strengthen. The EUR/PLN slightly below the 4.18 limit.

The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.

• A lack of macro data may noticeably impact the analyzed currency pairs.

The EUR/USD higher again

The euro weakening last night was brief. Today around noon, the EUR/USD was recorded in the range of 1.2330-1.2340, which is close to the levels observed before the dovish "minutes" publication from the last European Central Bank meeting.

The external situation also favours the stability and relatively good euro condition. The moderate increase in risk aversion is seen by investors as a negative signal for the dollar. Information about Syria is therefore the reason for the weaker USD. The dollar may still be affected by the trade clash between the United States and China. In theory, of course, lower imports (because of customs) should support the dollar in the short term, but it seems that the general sentiment to the American administration's actions is more important and it puts pressure on the American currency. In this context, the euro zone has been also positioning itself as a safe haven.

The very foreign trade result may also support the euro. Today Eurostat published data about the goods trade for February. The euro zone has achieved a surplus of 18.9 billion euro. In total, for the first two months of the year, exports exceeded imports by 22.4 billion EUR. This is 8 billion more than in the corresponding period of last year. There are no key macroeconomic data in the coming hours, so geopolitical events should be observed by investors. In the baseline scenario, major shifts in the EUR/USD trends should not occur.

Signals for the zloty

The Polish currency remains strong and stable. The EUR/PLN has been trying to fall below the 4.18 limit. The Swiss franc, on the other hand has nearly reached the lowest levels from the beginning of 2015. The good condition of the PLN is not disturbed by quite weak data from foreign trade. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the deficit in the goods trade balance enlarged in February to PLN 3.6 billion PLN from 2.0 billion PLN a month earlier. It is not a serious external imbalance, but a year earlier the balance was positive at the level of 1.0 billion PLN.

In the following hours, the market will wait for the decision of S&P Global Ratings regarding Polish creditworthiness. It is possible that the domestic rating outlook will increase, especially that most data from the domestic economy has been good for several quarters, and the fiscal situation is also better than the agency expected. It is worth noting, however, that the generally better financial situation is probably already largely included in the zloty exchange rate and treasury bonds. Even so, if S&P positively surprises, the zloty reaction may be very moderate.