Some currencies under pressure (Daily analysis 10.04.2018)

The rather mild speech by the Chinese President maintains a relatively good sentiment. Some of the emerging market currencies are under noticeable pressure. The zloty remains calm. The EUR/PLN still close to the 4.20 boundary.

The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.

• A lack of macro data may noticeably impact the analyzed currency pairs.

Speech by the Chinese President

European markets started in a relatively good mood due to the neutral character of the Chinese President's speech. It contains elements that can be used to reduce the emotions associated with customs.

President Xi, during his speech on the Hainan island, tried to answer some of the US expectations. Among other things, he stated that he would reduce customs duties on imported cars or reduce restrictions on foreign investment in the car industry. Xi also showed his willingness to open the financial sector more, which the Americans may like. Moreover, the President also presented plans related to the protection of intellectual property.

The speech was positively taken by investors. The Chinese yuan also strengthened slightly, which may indicate a slight reduction in fears for the future of trade between the US and the Middle Kingdom.

Of course, the US reaction will be crucial in this matter. Will formal negotiations start? If this is not the case, the situation in the share market will be nervous in the coming days.

Some currencies strongly below in red

Over the past few days, most currencies have reacted very calmly to the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. However, some currencies have come under pressure in recent days. This applies not only to the ruble which lost around 10% in two days but also to the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira and the South African rand.

In the case of the rouble, the panic sale is a result of sanctions and the situation in Syria. In turn, the lira reached new historical lows in relation to most currencies due to too mild monetary policy. The very high current account deficit (around 5% of GDP) is also a fundamental threat to the Turkish currency.

The South African rand also has to face the external imbalances despite recent changes in local authorities. The Brazilian real incurred losses because of the serious political risks before the autumn elections. However, it is worth noting that these currencies are just small part of the generally calm FX market. Still, there are no signs of capital outflow, which would be negative for most EM currencies, including the zloty.

Stability visible in the market. Wednesday will be crucial

During the last five sessions, the EUR/PLN pair was moving almost all the time within the extremely narrow fluctuation range (4.20 plus/minus 0.01 PLN). It was no different in the last hours. The impact of changes in sentiment in foreign markets or geopolitical events has a marginal impact on the Polish currency.

It seems that for the rest of the session this pattern should not be disturbed. More emotions may arise tomorrow, when the US data ('minutes' from the Fed; inflation) comes in and when the statement from April's meeting of the Council will be published. However, if none of these events is particularly surprising, it is possible that the stabilisation will be extended to the back of the week as well.