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Set of positive data from the USA (Afternoon analysis 9.01.2020)

9 Jan 2020 17:36|Bartosz Grejner

Better-than-expected data from the US labour market once again support the dollar. The number of initial jobless claims was the lowest in five weeks. The zloty notes no major changes, but fluctuations may increase tomorrow afternoon.

Another set of data from the US economy that exceeded market expectations. The number of jobless claims submitted last week fell to the lowest level in five weeks, i.e. 214k. It is also 6k below the market expectations and 8k less than before. These are not key data as far as their impact on the dollar is concerned, but they do contribute to a positive image of the US labour market and the economy as a whole, which supports the maintenance of dollar profits earned in recent days.

Records in the USA support positive sentiment

The main currency pair, i.e. the EUR/USD, oscillated most of the day around the 1.11 boundary, the lowest level since December 27th. In turn, the dollar/yen (USD/JPY) rate rose to around 109.6 in the afternoon, which was also the highest level since December 27th. Sentiment in the broader market remained very positive. All three major US market indexes have risen today to new historical records, and their European counterparts have also grown strongly. The market has practically forgotten about the geopolitical risk (USA vs Iran), and the lack of escalation of the conflict made the price of oil (WTI) below 59 USD per barrel. This is the lowest level since the second week of December last year.

Given such good sentiment, the zloty remained stable. The Polish currency's quotations in relation to the main currencies remain at the same level as on previous days, maintaining a limited fluctuation range. The calendar of significant events until the end of the day is rather empty; therefore, the zloty's basket should stabilise around current levels. The market participants are already waiting for tomorrow's report on the US labour market. At the publication time, there may be increased fluctuations in the currency market. The EUR/PLN exchange rate remains in the range of 4.23-4.25 and the USD/PLN exchange rate slightly above 3.82. If the report is slightly better than expected, the supply pressure on the zloty may increase slightly. Still, the continuing positive sentiment on the market should protect the Polish currency against deeper depreciation.

Tomorrow's preview

On Friday, there will be the most anticipated macroeconomic publication this week. The US Department of Labor will publish a report on the US labour market for December. On Wednesday, the market has been given a foretaste in the form of the latest data from the ADP Institute. They indicated an increase in employment by 202k, i.e. much above the expectations of 160k. This is also the market consensus for tomorrow's data on employment change in the non-farm sector. The reading at the level of ADP data (or above) could become a positive stimulus for the dollar and the equity market, among others.

A significant point in this report will also be an increase in the average hourly wage. The median of market expectations indicates that the pace of salary growth will be maintained at the level of 3.1 % per year and increase by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3 % on a monthly basis. The higher level could indicate a slightly greater pressure on inflation, which could further strengthen the dollar. In the case of another very good labour market report in a row, the supply pressure on emerging countries' currencies may increase slightly.

9 Jan 2020 17:36|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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