__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The sentiment on the broad market is deteriorating as shares are falling and the yields on Treasury bonds are rising. The dollar remained weak. The EUR/PLN pair was around 4.16, but the pressure on the Polish currency remained limited. However, the changes of more rapid movements that depend on global moods are growing.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Weaker sentiment
At the beginning of Thursday's session, we had the impression that US indexes may start to pare some past losses. However, the closure was weaker and future contract quotations for the US indexes were under pressure from sellers as well as from European market shares.
The strengthening of the dollar, as well as capital outflow from the emerging markets, may appear to be due to drops on exchange markets combined with increases in yields on the US treasury bonds. Currently, this trend hasn’t been observed or shown on US currency quotations. The EUR/USD remains close to the 1.2500 boundary, close to three-year highs.
Perhaps some investors believe that current quotations represent temporary deterioration in the sentiment. However, if the share price deterioration deepens and the market continues to value the accelerated tightening of the US monetary policy, waves of significant capital outflows from EMC economies could be observed (a reversal of the inflow observed last year). However, it is very difficult to precisely determine the exact beginning of this process.
Important data that can be ignored by the market
A report from the US Department of Labor, the most important macroeconomic data, will be published today. Although the report is based on a rather small sample (in both households and businesses), the market very often waits in excitement of this data.
However, now the market's attitude may change significantly towards this data. The data’s interpretation could be very selective. In addition, previous ADP data was solid (approx. 50k higher than estimated), which means that the expectations for payrolls may likely be higher than the consensus (180k).
Recently, data on wages started to attract much more attention than the number of payrolls or the unemployment rate. This data is important due to the fact that higher wages should translate into stronger inflationary pressure as well as faster than expected interest rate increases by the Fed. However, the currency market has practically ignored recent signals from debt instruments. This may mean that today's publication will not be received in the standard way.
Calm zloty
The zloty depreciated in relation to the forint or the euro in the morning. Later, it pared these relatively limited losses, meaning that the zloty, like other EMC currencies, is currently immune to depreciation or increases in the yields of the US treasury bonds. However, if risk aversion worsens, the zloty will have problems with maintaining current levels.
As usual, the moment when the increased volatility on the zloty will likely occur will be around 2:30 p.m., when data from the US labour market will be published. However, it seems that given the recent discorrelation between asset classes, the currency market may want to perceive the data as negative for the dollar, regardless its value. In this type of scenario, the Polish currency shouldn’t lose value.
See also:
Afternoon analysis 01.02.2018
Daily analysis 01.02.2018
Afternoon analysis 31.01.2018
Three hits for bitcoin
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.