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Optimism in the broader market continues to increase (Daily analysis 2.06.2020)

2 Jun 2020 12:31|Bartosz Grejner

Positive market sentiment and a weaker dollar improve the zloty's situation, and it is practically returning to pre-pandemic levels. The effect of positive sentiment is also a strong weakening of the franc in relation to the euro, which is the cheapest since the second week of January.

The next dose of market stimulation

The trade on Tuesday morning was practically no different from what happened on Monday or last week. Currently, macroeconomic data have a limited impact on the market, but in the absence of significant readings, the more important was the positive attitude related to the opening of economies.

According to Bloomberg, Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to mediate a compromise on the second stimulus package for the German economy. This has clearly improved sentiment in the broader market, slightly strengthened the euro, and deepened the weakening of the dollar.

The dollar below in red

The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to around 1.1185 in the morning, the highest level since mid-March. After crossing the 1.10 limit, the weakening of the dollar did not stop even for a moment, supported by the currently prevailing optimism on the financial market.

The value of the dollar may also be negatively affected by the protests in the US and President Donald Trump's announcement that he is ready to use the army if regional governors do not restore the order. This may ultimately slow down the process of lifting restrictions and restoring economic activity.

The dollar in a weaker condition combined with optimism in the broader market continues to increase the appetite for risk and, as a result, for emerging countries' currencies. The zloty is one of the winners of this sentiment; its quotations clearly gain in relation to the main currencies.

The zloty is getting stronger

The EUR/PLN exchange rate fell to around 4.38, and although it is still far from pre-pandemic levels (around 4.30), it is clearly closer to them than to the highs of the second half of March (almost 4.64). If, in turn, we look at the quotations of the pound, the dollar or the franc in relation to the zloty, we can already talk about the levels before the outbreak of the virus.

The CHF/PLN exchange rate dropped particularly strongly (nearly 1%) until midday, to approx. 4.0767. This is primarily a result of a combination of the two factors mentioned above, i.e. the weakening dollar and still improving market sentiment. They have led to a strong weakening of the franc in recent days, although to this should be added the strengthened euro. The EUR/CHF's quotations, rising today to around 1.0763, reached their highest level since the second week of January, reflecting the dominance of positive sentiment.

2 Jun 2020 12:31|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

1 Jun 2020 17:44

The sentiment is getting better, and the zloty is getting stronger (Afternoon analysis 1.06.2020)

1 Jun 2020 15:19

Chinese industry surprises (Daily analysis 1.06.2020)

29 May 2020 17:48

The income of the Americans has been raising the fastest since the war (Afternoon analysis 29.05.2020)

29 May 2020 14:47

Another day of dollar weakness (Daily analysis 29.05.2020)

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