Oil depreciates, the zloty incurs losses, and the sentiment is worse than yesterday (Afternoon analysis 8.09.2020)

The return of American investors to the markets after a long weekend began with a 2-3% drop in indexes. The price of a barrel of oil fell by 9%. Worse market sentiment weakened the zloty. The USD/PLN exchange rate exceeded 3.78 PLN, and the EUR/PLN exchange rate approached 4.46 PLN.

Tuesday was marked by an increased aversion to risk. From the very morning, there were signs of this, and the afternoon did not bring any improvement. After a long weekend, US investors came back to the markets, but the day on the US trading floors began with a 2-3% drop in key market indexes.

The pound against the dollar is just above 1.30

Today, oil prices were also slumping. The value of one barrel decreased by about 9% (WTI), to 36 USD, continuing the strong depreciation started last Tuesday.

The downward pressure also does not leave the pound after toughening rhetoric on negotiating the terms of the new UK trade agreement with the European Union. The GBP/USD quotations remain at 1.302-1.303 (this afternoon). However, a drop below 1.30 may further strengthen the sale off wave of the British currency, especially given a slightly weaker sentiment in the broader market.

The zloty has to forget about the increases it made yesterday

The euro/dollar exchange rate remains stable at around 1.18, with only slight declines of about 0.1-0.2% from the previous day. However, the deterioration in sentiment affects most emerging countries' currencies, including the zloty. The Polish currency gave back part of the profits generated yesterday. The EUR/PLN exchange rate rose from about 4.43 to 4.45, and the USD/PLN pair went up from 3.75 to 3.78. Lower demand for risk was also reflected in a drop in the zloty by about 0.6% in relation to the Swiss franc, which resulted in an increase in the CHF/PLN exchange rate to 4.12 PLN.

The fate of the zloty in the following hours depends on market sentiment. Deterioration on American markets may still potentially weaken the Polish currency. The dollar is slightly stronger on Tuesday than in previous days. The demand for the US currency may still increase if we observe strong drops in the EUR/USD pair and the GBP/USD, which may ultimately increase the supply pressure on the zloty.