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No significant changes (Afternoon analysis 26.02.2018)

26 Feb 2018 16:40|Bartosz Grejner

Calm Monday on the currency market. The zloty is supported by good sentiment on the market. Market attention is already focused on the coming events of this week.

Stable zloty

Today, quotations on the foreign exchange market were without significant changes. This was due to a lack of scheduled important publications and events today. This translated into limiting dollar and euro fluctuations - the main currency pair's quotations moved in a relatively narrow range of about 1.23-1.235 for most of the day.

The Polish currency remained stable. The whole zloty basket (excluding the still relatively weak dollar) was supported by good sentiment on the global market. Before 4.00 p.m., both the main indexes in the US and in Europe were growing by almost 1%. Lower risk aversion is usually positive for the zloty. Therefore, if a worsening of sentiment and drops in the market or a clearly strengthening dollar are not observed, the zloty may close the day near the current levels, which are also similar to those observed on Friday.

In the following hours, there are no scheduled events that could have a relatively strong impact on currencies. However, it may change tomorrow, and the dollar can be under strong fluctuations. The new Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell will testify to the US Congress. Although he is likely to continue his predecessor Janet Yellen's monetary policy, his statements may introduce more volatility on the dollar.

Tomorrow's preview

At 2.00 p.m. Destatis will publish February's preliminary data on consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany. The median of market expectations indicates an inflation drop from 1.6% to 1.5% per year. This was mainly due to a higher base from the previous year when inflation reached 2.2%. However, if a fall below 1.5% is observed, this could send out a negative signal to the euro, as it could suggest that inflation in the eurozone may turn out to be slightly worse than expected (its publication is scheduled one day later).

At 2.30 p.m. macroeconomic data from the US economy will be published. January's level of orders for durable goods (expected to increase by 0.4% MOM vs. 0.7% a month earlier) and the balance of trade in goods (an increase in the deficit is expected by approx. 0.7 billion USD to 72.3 billion USD) will be published. The dollar could be under significant pressure, if the aforementioned data is worse than market consensus. Although the market attention may be more focused on inflation data (from the eurozone on Wednesday, from the US on Thursday), if it differs from consensus then the dollar may be under increased volatility. However, the data's final impact may be limited.

26 Feb 2018 16:40|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

26 Feb 2018 12:20

Dollar again declines (Daily analysis 26.02.2018)

23 Feb 2018 15:50

Stabilisation on the market (Afternoon analysis 23.02.2018)

23 Feb 2018 12:16

Calmer sentiment (Daily analysis 23.02.2018)

22 Feb 2018 15:49

Sentiment improves (Afternoon analysis 22.02.2018)

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