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No significant changes (Afternoon analysis 19.09.2018)

19 Sept 2018 16:11|Marcin Lipka

The dollar is slightly stronger in the afternoon, but changes are limited. There has been a variable session on the pound after "The Times" reports on Brexit. The euro's exchange rate is between 4.29 and 4.30 PLN in the afternoon.

The US currency appreciates slightly during the afternoon trading and the EUR/USD pair falls to 1.1660. The dollar may be supported by the fact that the yields of US Treasury bonds are increasing. The instruments maturing in 10-years test the 3.07% level, and the 2-year-olds reach the highest levels in less than a decade, exceeding the 2.80%.

Lately, the relationship between the debt instruments market and currencies has weakened. However, it cannot be ruled out that it may return because the yields first of all value the Fed's future monetary policy. Their increases are also one of the arguments for FOMC to continue to raise interest rates.

Apart from the main trend of the dollar or the euro, there were also quite a lot of events on the pound today. In the first part of the day, the British currency was supported by higher than expected inflation in the Islands. In the second part of the day, however, sterling began to weaken rapidly after "The Times" wrote that Prime Minister Theresa May was preparing to reject the EU's offer on resolving the border issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

This topic returns not only because of the difficulties of trade (there will or will not be a physical border) but also due to the historical context. Without a solution, the risk of disagreement or prolonged negotiations is increasing. The pound's weakness in the afternoon has also led to a slight depreciation of the euro and has been a minor support for the dollar. In general, market movements are still very limited and the market is trying to find some kind of foothold after brutal detachment from the issue of customs war.

After the US markets opened close to Tuesday's closing, larger changes are also not observed on the zloty. The Polish currency remains stable to the euro or the dollar. On the other hand, the franc, whose exchange rate fell below the 3.80 level following yesterday's negation of the fatal effects of the customs war and expectations before tomorrow's SNB meeting, which may harm the Swiss currency, suggesting a more aggressive approach in order to weaken the franc.

19 Sept 2018 16:11|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

19 Sept 2018 13:33

Life apart from trade war (Daily analysis 19.09.2018)

18 Sept 2018 16:35

Increase in trade tensions (Afternoon analysis 18.09.2018)

18 Sept 2018 13:04

Investors with rose-coloured spectacles? (Daily analysis 18.09.2018)

17 Sept 2018 15:47

Slightly stronger zloty (Afternoon analysis 17.09.2018)

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