No serious surprises (Afternoon analysis 29.03.2018)

The set of the US data with limited impact in the currency market. The zloty remained stable both after the minutes from the last MPC meeting and after readings from the United States.

Key data in line with expectations

Data on initial jobless claims in the USA was surprising. It fell to its lowest level since January 1973. However, it is commonly known that the number of new jobseekers is very low and this decline does not change much in the economy.

PCE's inflation data was also slightly above consensus. However, that is not very important because core prices (excluding fuel and food) were in line with the consensus and increased by 1.6% year on year in February. Therefore, the inflationary pressure was not a surprise. Economists' forecasts also perfectly predicted the income and spending of Americans.

As a result, the market's reaction after the readings was limited and even slightly negative for the dollar. It seems that the USD appreciation last night was caused by the expectations of some market participants on the inflationary pressure to be stronger than expected. Since this did not happen, the dollar gave back part of the increases.

Calm zloty

The US readings did not change the zloty significantly. Pre-Easter trade is relatively calm. Minutes from the last Monetary Policy Council meeting also brought relatively limited impact.

The consensus remains that interest rates should remain unchanged. Some members (probably three) assume that if wage growth continued to increase and inflationary pressures increased, they would consider raising interest rates in subsequent quarters. However, this message is similar to the one that has been published for several months now. In general, minutes should be perceived as neutral for the zloty.