__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Strong data from the USA and Europe support positive sentiment and a greater appetite for risky assets for the second day in a row. The zloty benefits from the current situation and pares some of the losses incurred: the EUR/PLN drops below 4.28, the lowest level since last Wednesday.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
The positive sentiment observed on Monday translated into today's quotations. The main market indexes in Europe gained slightly over 1% around midday, with simultaneous depreciation of the yen, the franc or gold. Tuesday's quotations, at least until midday, were characterized by a reduced level of risk aversion. This is a consequence of slightly better-than-expected data received yesterday from the eurozone (PMI), as well as much higher-than-consensus activity indexes in the US industrial sector.
So far the market is not concerned with the virus
Despite reports from the largest media agencies about the rising number of victims of the virus from China, market sentiment indicates that the worst-case scenario of a strong spread and relatively large impact on the global economy is hardly priced at all. If the virus translates into a strong slowdown in the Chinese economy (the latest reports by Bloomberg say that demand for oil fell by about 20%), i.e. also global, a strong change of sentiment can be observed.
This would result in increased risk aversion and supply pressure on emerging countries' currencies. However, positive sentiment in the market is currently improving their condition. The zloty profits from the current situation and pares some of the losses in relation to the main currencies around midday. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fell below 4.28, the lowest level since last Wednesday. Recently, the zloty has not been supported by data from the Polish economy (lower than expected GDP growth pace for 2019, industry's PMI), although the Polish currency is most strongly dependent on external factors and data from the domestic economy have a limited impact on it, especially as the MPC's interest rate changes over the coming year are not planned.
Pound under pressure, but today it catches its breath
Today, the pound, received support in the form of a higher-than-expected PMI index for the construction sector. Activity in this sector in January far exceeded expectations (48.4 pts against the consensus of 47.1 pts) and was the highest since May last year, although it still shows a slowdown (reading below 50 pts). However, this is another PMI reading that clearly exceeds market expectations, which may underline positive sentiment due to the elimination of election uncertainty and Brexit.
The British currency is still under pressure from the confrontational rhetoric of Boris Johnson on Monday. He reminded market participants how difficult a new trade agreement with the EU might be. The current agreement is valid until the end of the year. This may help maintain supply pressure on the pound later in the year, even though it is still the most overestimated G10 currency. The GBP/USD quotation after reaching its lowest level since the holiday season in December is around 1.30.
Although the GBP/PLN exchange rate also fell significantly from about 5.13 to 5.03 today, the relatively weaker condition of the zloty basket (due to greater uncertainty about the virus) continues to keep the quotations of this pair at a high level.
Later in the day, data on orders for machinery in the US in December, which may indicate the scale of industrial production, will be published. We can expect a slightly increased volatility in the afternoon. Basically, nothing should change. However, greater fluctuations of the dollar are possible if the data clearly deviate from the consensus.
See also:
US industry the strongest in six months (Afternoon analysis 3.02.2020)
Better data from the eurozone, worse from Poland (Daily analysis 3.02.2020)
Very weak data from the euro area (Daily analysis 31.01.2020)
Interest rates in the Islands unchanged, the pound appreciates (Daily analysis 30.01.2020)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.