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Daily analysis 30.06.2016

30 Jun 2016 13:10|Marcin Lipka

Will a person who is against Brexit will be the new prime minister of the United Kingdom? Will bookies set the new market sentiment yet again? The zloty remains stable against the franc, as well as the euro. The dollar is slightly below the level of 4.00 PLN.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.

  • 14.00: Initial consumers inflation reading from Poland (estimations: negative 0.8% y/y).
  • 14.30: Weekly jobless claims from the USA (estimations: 267k).
  • 15.45: Chicago PMI (estimations: 51 points).

Further consequences of division in Conservative Party

During the referendum campaign in the United Kingdom, the country's prime minister was supporting the EU. At the same time, a significant part of his party colleagues, as well as of the ministers were for Brexit. This element seemed sufficient enough for making disturbances. However, the situation is becoming even more complicated.

Crucial candidates for the Conservative Party leader, as well as for prime minister, will announce their participation in the elections today. On one hand, it will be Boris Johnson who is the Brexit supporter. On the other, it will be Theresa May, who is the United Kingdom's Home Secretary, as well as an ally of David Cameron for keeping the UK within the European Union.

Even though the new leader's name will be announced at the beginning of September, YouGove has published a survey regarding the chances of a particular candidate today. It may seem that currently the opinion poll centers have low forecasting abilities. However, the YouGov survey history is very positive in this case. For the past few years the results of surveys among the Tories, were basically consistent with the final result.

The YouGov/Times survey indicates a definitive victory of Theresa May, with a 55% vs 38% relation against her main opponent. Thus, if we assume that the current Home Secretary is elected prime minister, she will be responsible for the Brexit negotiations with the EU. And, as we know, she was against the UK leaving the EU.

However, May claims that her views will not change the events regarding Brexit. The Telegraph cited her statement, in which she claims that she will assign, “a Ministry of Brexit.” A person who will be in charge of this ministry, will be one of the people who were for the UK leaving the EU.

It is difficult to name the consequences of such process. It is possible that the current administration is striving for the new elections. However, is it possible that they will stop the Brexit procedures? There is also a danger that it may extend the crisis within the Conservative Party, as well as increase support for Nigel Farage, as well as his UKIP. The Guardian cited Farage's statement for The Telegraph today. He said that, “it is unthinkable that the next prime minister, whose most urgent task is to implement the Brexit process, could be a person who was for the EU only a few days ago.”

Will bookies be in the center of attention yet again?

It is too soon to focus on quotations of the British bookies for the time being. The market will remain skeptical regarding their forecast rates. However, it is worth noticing that Betfair pays less to those who bet that the Article 50 will be initiated this year. Without an official initiation of the exit procedure, there will be no actual Brexit.

Betfair estimations also give bigger chances for the prime minister position to Theresa May. Thus, it is possible that despite a skeptical approach towards the bookies estimations, some of investors may become convinced that the UK will remain within the EU. Regardless of the real chances for making this scenario come true, it may improve the global sentiment at some point. On the other hand, if optimistic scenario does not come true, the unfulfilled expectations may cause significant changes in the market. We have already seen their results on last Friday.

Zloty is relatively calm

The zloty was remaining relatively stable against the main currencies before noon. However, the USD/PLN remains below the 4.00 level, due a light wear-off of the dollar in the global market. The Polish national currency will most likely remain stable for the following hours, unless the global sentiment deteriorates clearly. On the other hand, even if the American indexes continue to grow, it will rather not cause the EUR/PLN to go below 4.40.

Today's inflation data should have a minor impact on quotations of the zloty as well. Limited nervousness will probably be observed tomorrow as well. This is despite the fact that investors anticipate the decision regarding the Polish rating. In our opinion, the dangers mentioned by Standard & Poor's in January are not becoming true. Thus, the risk of a decrease in the loan credibility is very limited.

30 Jun 2016 13:10|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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