__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Solid US data didn't push the dollar much higher. Reports on Chechen soldiers participating in the Ukrainian conflict. 22nd rate cut in Hungary and another are on the horizon. Lower benchmark in Poland is “unrealistic” according, to the MPC member Zielińska-Głębocka.
Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
The US. Ukraine. Hungary
We received another set of positive data from the US. Firstly, the durable goods orders were significantly higher than expected (+0.8% vs minus 0.8%). The reading was also above estimates if we exclude the transportation component (+0.1% vs consensus at minus 0.1). Additionally, both figures for March were revised upwards by around 1 percentage point.
Similarly, upbeat data were reported by Markit. Despite the fact that PMI indicator brings much less attention than its ISM counterpart, the services Purchasing Manager's Index was really solid. It rose to 58.4 points and recorded the highest reading since March 2012. While commenting the data, Tim Moor, senior economist at Markit wrote that “May's flash services PMI survey is a further signal that the US economy has regained momentum through the second quarter of the year". In result, we should expect that after three months of sluggish economy (and probably negative reading; tomorrow the data revision will be published), the following quarters should be much better.
Despite the fact that Ukrainian Petro Porshenko won the election in the first round, the situation in the east of the country hasn't calmed down. There are reports that dozens of people died in the clashes between the Kiev backed the army and separatists in Donetsk. It is also getting more clear that the Russian Federation has been directly engaged in the conflict. Both the “Financial Times” and “The New York Times” report that Donetsk mayor Aleksandr Lukyanchenko said that people who were wounded and stayed in hospitals are holding Russian passports and come from Moscow or Grozny. There are still no comments regarding the issue from Kremlin but it may be used to disconnect Moscow from the separatists' group (dropping both the unofficial and official support). On the other hand, if Russia remains a supplier of the rebels than the conflict may last for months.
Hungary lowered its benchmark for the 22nd time in the row. The cut was fairly benign (by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%) and widely expected, especially keeping in mind that the latest inflation readings showed a first y/y deflation since the fall of communism. We can also see that the CPI is much lower than the central bank expected in March when it was estimated in “Inflation Report” that the prices should rose around 0.7% y/y. This fact was probably one of the reason that Goldman Sachs (according to “The Wall Street Journal”) lowered its reference rate target for Hunger from 2.5% to 2.2%. It is possible that, despite expanding economy, the pressure to cut rates remains valid and any forint appreciation may quickly fade.
Summarizing, we had pretty bullish data from the US yesterday. They will probably pretty fast transfer into another solid set of indicator and finally also get into higher inflation. As a result, the greenback should benefit from the expanding economy (in the medium run). For the following days, however, the main theme on the market is still ECB rate decision and inflation data for the Euro area (both next week).
Again slightly weaker. Zielinska-Glebocka
The zloty is beginning another morning with slightly risk off sentiment. The EUR/PLN pair is heading toward 4.17 and USD/PLN is approaching 3.06. A slightly weaker Polish currency is mainly a result of tensions in the East of the continent. This hypothesis can be quickly verified by the Russian ruble behavior which dropped around 1.5% from the 4-month highs recorded last week.
Yesterday, in contrary to the dire news from Ukraine, we had some positive comments Polish MPC member. Alica Zielinska-Glebocka told Reuters that “fresh estimates inside the bank show that we may now be looking at growth of even 3.8 percent in 2014. And above 4 percent next year”. She also added that, despite low inflation, calls for rate cuts are “unrealistic”. Both comments should be supportive for the PLN in the medium term.
Summarizing, if the Ukrainian situation does not worsen significantly we should expect that the zloty remains near the current level. On the other hand, in case of some positive reports form our Eastern neighbor the EUR/PLN should return to 4.15-4.16 range and CHF/PLN may drop below 3.40.
Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:
See also:
Daily analysis 27.05.2014
Daily analysis 26.05.2014
Daily analysis 23.05.2014
Daily analysis 22.05.2014
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.