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Daily analysis 28.04.2015

28 Apr 2015 13:22|Marcin Lipka

Varoufakis no longer leads the negotiation team. Tsipras optimistic on reforms voting. The Riksbank decision on interest rates and the QE on Wednesday. The zloty is traded close to the 4.00 per the euro before US data. The Swiss franc weaker.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • No macro data which may significantly affect the analysed currency pairs.

Closer to a deal?

The Greek finance minister was pushed away from leading the negotiation team with creditors. Markets cheered the decision in anticipation that the deputy foreign affairs minister would do the job in a more predictable way. The EUR/USD rose to around 1.0900 at the beginning of the US session.

Some concerns, however, were fuelled by comments from Tsipras. During his interview with local TV station, the Syriza leader didn't exclude to run a nationwide referendum on accepting or rejecting the reform plan. Despite the fact that it was rather hypothetical discussion, the message was brought by the media to a headline news what weakened the overall view that the agreement with creditors might be reached in a few days.

Suggestions on possible referendum might also be regarded as an attempt for internal hard line opposition which is prone to confront with the EU and IMF. Mentioning the referendum idea might lower the impact of such opinions. In a referendum scenario the current government could have also been under pressure, so the game is worth playing.

This week looks to be the opposite to previous days when we could only observe worsening conditions between Athens and Brussels. The odds are increasing that finally Greece delivers a real reform plan which should be accepted by the eurogroup. It is also worth noting that the whole process is gradual and some optimism is already included in the prices the deal does not have to mean a significant EUR/USD appreciation move.

Riksbank decision

Tomorrow the Swedish monetary authority is scheduled to deliver its decision on interest rates and asset purchase program. It should also show whether Stefan Ingves and his colleagues keep their dovish bias.

The Bloomberg consensus estimates that the interest rates might be lowered to minus 0.35% from minus 0.25% and the asset purchase should be increased by 10 billion USD. The Riksbank put a significant attention to currency value and inflation. On the hand the EUR/SEK pair is extremely sensible to the MPC decisions.

There is a high probability that the Riksbank fulfils market expectations and keep the EUR/SEK above 9.25-9.30. It is also possible the benchmark cut goes even deeper the than expected and the QE is increased to 50 billion krone. It might push the EUR/SEK above 9.50.

Foreign markets in a few sentences

Yesterday's events in Greece should be regarded as brining two sides closer to the resolution. Tomorrow, however, the attention should be focused on the GDP reading from the US and the Federal Reserve meeting. The weaker the data the odds for further slide on the dollar higher. As a result the EUR/USD may be pushed above 1.10.

The news agencies has recently reported that central banks in emerging markets are either lowering interest rates or suggesting that the cut is anticipated.There are also interventions aimed to weaken the currencies. In Poland none of the methods is considered what should bring give a hint that there is a room for further zloty appreciation toward the euro. Our base case scenario is assumes that the EUR/PLN should be pushed toward 3.80-3.85 during the current quarter.

In recent days a significant slide on the Swiss currency is observed on the market. It is a result of smaller tensions regarding Greece and more suggestions from SNB on overvalued franc and possible FX interventions. Currently the EUR/CHF is expected to be pushed toward 1.05. If the EUR/PLN stays around 4.00 it should bring the CHF/PLN to 3.80.

Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.0750-1.0850 1.0650-1.0750 1.0850-1.0950
Range EUR/PLN 4.0000-4.0400 4.0000-4.0400 4.0000-4.0400
Range USD/PLN 3.7100-3.7500 3.7500-3.7900 3.6700-3.7100
Range CHF/PLN 3.8500-3.8900 3.8500-3.8900 3.8500-3.8900

Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:

Range GBP/USD 1.4950-1.5050 1.4850-1.4950 1.5050-1.5150
Range GBP/PLN 5.5600-5.6000 5.5200-5.5600 5.6000-5.6400

28 Apr 2015 13:22|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

27 Apr 2015 17:27

Afternoon analysis 27.04.2015

27 Apr 2015 12:46

Daily analysis 27.04.2015

24 Apr 2015 17:33

Afternoon analysis 24.04.2015

24 Apr 2015 12:27

Daily analysis 24.04.2015

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