__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Donald Trump’s testimony will mainly concern economic matters. However, the complete budget project may not be revealed until the beginning of May. Increasing profitability of the American treasury bonds. The recent rebound of Polish business cycle has decreased the anxiety over the negative GDP.
Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimates of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.
Anticipation
Two events that cast more light onto Donald Trump’s testimony, as well as onto the American budget, occurred yesterday afternoon. During his meeting with the representatives of the National Governor’s Association, the American president said that the budget matters will be the main topic of his today’s testimony.
Moreover, Donald Trump announced a start of large infrastructural expenses, which will be discussed in front of the Congress. The topic of the future federal incomes and expenses had been continued during the press meeting of the White House’s spokesperson, which was additionally attended by Mick Mulvaney, Director of the Office of Management and Budget.
Mulvaney started his statement with a declaration that the budget project scheduled for mid-March will not be complete. This will only contain a portion of changes (defense expenses, among others). The matters regarding taxes or infrastructural investments will be revealed at the beginning of May.
This means that the impact of the election campaign announcements from both Donald Trump and the Republicans will not be fully estimated until May. This may be negative for the dollar, because an extended period of uncertainty may decrease optimism or withhold investments. However, there is more time for both the presidential and the republican projects to become more consistent, especially regarding the entrepreneur taxes, as well as the Border Tax Adjustment.
Recent suggestions from the American president indicate that his today’s testimony will mostly consist of economic matters. We should also expect a confirmation of fulfilling the election campaign promises. This may support the dollar in the short-term. However, the lack of significant details in the initial budget project may cause that the return to the strongest appreciation trend may be difficult.
Higher profitability
Yesterday, the profitability of the US two-year treasury bonds increased by 5 base case points and returned to the level of 1.20%. This suggests increasing chances for a more rapid monetary tightening. However, we shouldn’t relate this growth with the announcements from Donald Trump or the White House’s press conference.
Robert Kaplan’s testimony overlapped these moves. Even though this neutral FOMC representative (with the right to vote) sounded relatively hawkish, he has recently been making many testimonies. Moreover, the one from yesterday didn’t contain anything that would differ it from his previous suggestions.
A relatively intense reaction of the market may suggest that investors are quite nervous. This may also be a certain hint before Donald Trump’s testimony. If the American president actually focuses on emphasizing economic advantages of his plans, the market would again believe in the forthcoming plans fiscal stimulation. This would be positive for the USD, as well as the American bonds.
Stabilization
The Polish Central Statistical Office published the data regarding the GDP for the fourth quarter. This index increased 2.7% YoY. However, more than half of this result (1.4%) was caused by an increase in supplies, whereas the contribution of gross outlay for durable goods was negative (1.6%). If it wasn’t for the recent acceleration of the business cycle, this structure would have been disturbing. However, taking into consideration positive data, as well as improving consumer sentiment, its tone is definitely less negative.
Since Donald Trump’s testimony is scheduled for 3.00 CET, a relatively minor liquidity on the zloty may cause some chaos to a portion of moves. If the testimony from the American president is favorable, we may expect the dollar to grow to the range of 4.10-4.15 PLN. However, if it doesn’t refer significantly to the economic matters, it’s possible that the American currency will be pushed to the range of 4.00-4.05 PLN.
See also:
Afternoon analysis 27.02.2017
Daily analysis 27.02.2017
Afternoon analysis 24.02.2017
Daily analysis 24.02.2017
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.