__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Geopolitics is taken aside and the sentiments are improving thanks to the new records on the American stock market. Inflation in USA near to the expectations. Central Bank of Hungary is done with easing of monetary policy. The zloty maintains yesterday's growths, despite very weak data about the industrial production.
Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
Sentiments. Inflation. Hungary
Yesterday's behaviour of foreign stock markets (especially west European and American) definitely improved the sentiments on the markets from which mainly emerging markets benefited. Better sentiment however, did not help EUR/USD which fell to the lowest levels this year, despite relatively neutral data on inflation from USA.
The market players quite quickly forgot about the anxieties related to the catastrophe of Malaysian airplane and the situation in Gaza Strip (perhaps the analyses made by the trade press – including “The Wall Stret Journal” - were helpful by indicating that in case of similar, single events the trends were not usually breaking) and started to buy the shares again, which allowed S&P 500 index to reach the new historical records. Currencies of emerging markets also took advantage on sentiments' improvement, but on the other hand, EUR/USD did not take the chance to stop the downward pressure, despite the neutral data on inflation from USA.
The prices of consumption goods (CPI behind the ocean increased by 2.1% r/r, which was accordant with the economists' consensus. However, CPI was clearly “pushed” upwards by the prices of fuel, electricity and gas (these components increased by over 4% r/r). As a result, the reading with exclusion of fuel and food prices was +1.9%, while market's estimations indicated maintenance in limits of 2.0%. This of course decreases a chance for earlier increase of interest rates (although does not exclude it at the moment) and gives a good argument for the doves from Federal Reserve, who want to raise the interest rates not earlier than in mid 2015.
So the question is, why has the dollar not gained on its value yesterday, despite that the data were more in favour of its sale than purchase? One of the reasons can be a fact that some used the reading to sell EUR/USD “feeling', that the general attitude towards this pair is negative and this might be the last chance to close the higher positions. The Euro-dollar weakness could be also caused by increased activity on this pair. As reported by Reuters, “some traders noticed big orders of purchase on USD/CHF pair, coming from the investment funds, which helped the dollar to enforce itself in relation to Euro, breaking the strong technical support in limits of 1.3475-1.3510”. When talking about Reuters report, it is worthy to add, that the direct transfer of USD/CHF changes on EUR/USD is caused by Swiss Central Bank maintaining the EUR/CHF rate above 1.2000.
Yesterday Central Bank of Hungary (MNB) decided that they are done with two years long cycle of monetary policy's easing. The monetary authorities decreased the main interest rate by 490 basis points and by that taking it to the level of 2.1%. Chief of MNB said that he will maintain the rates on the current level until the end of 2015, unless the three-per cent inflation goal of the bank will be at risk (the chance for this scenario is very small, because Budapest publishes a negative prices growth in relation year-by-year, third month in a row). After this information hit the wires the forint strengthened in relation to main currencies (also taking advantage from the improving global sentiment), because, as marked by Gabor Nemeth from Budapest's department of Aegon quoted by Bloomberg, the market even speculated about the possibility of money rates' descend below 2.0%.
In conclusion, EUR/USD still remains under pressure, despite the inflation reading from USA accordant to expectations. Tomorrowąs data from Europe are worth observing. The sentiments before Thursday's PMI from Euro Zone are minor. However, if consensus will be fulfilled (approximately 52 points from the industry for Euro Zone, as well as for Germany), then the downward trend should be stopped in a short time.
Zloty is stronger, but the sale is very weak
Zloty gained approximately PLN 0.01 in relation to Euro since yesterday's afternoon. The elements that helped the national currency were mainly the improvement of sentiments on global capital market (S&P 500 records), calming of the situation with Malaysian Boeing (separatists giving away the black boxes and efficient transport of the victims) and ending the interest rates' fall cycle in Hungary.
However, weak macro data are once again to the PLN disadvantage. Retail sale instead of growing by approximately 4% r/r, resulted only in 1.7% r/r. Annual sales dynamics fell actually in practically all categories and the sales of furnitures and RTV equipment, fell in year-by-year relation. Though national currency's weakening was symbolic after Central Statistical Office publication, the increasing probability of GDP reading for second quarter below 3.0% and the threat concerning the business cycle in the upcoming months can increase the amount of members willing to cut the monetary policy in Autumn. This fact should decrease the appetite for zloty and in the periods of risk aversions' increase seriously weaken it.
In conclusion, zloty quite “luckily” gained on its value thanks to the geopolitical situation's improvement, however, weak economic activity of the country (if it will not turn) will slowly increase the chance for cutting of interest rates, which in result should be negative for PLN. Today, on the other hand, the quotations should be relatively stable and most of the transactions will be made in the limits of 4.13-4.14 on EUR/PLN and 3.40 on CHF/PLN.
Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:
See also:
Daily analysis 22.07.2014
Daily analysis 21.07.2014
Daily analysis 18.06.2014
Daily analysis 17.07.2014
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.