Daily analysis 23.05.2017

The highest reading of the German Ifo in history and very positive PMI readings from the eurozone. There has been plenty of questions regarding both the American budget and taxes. The zloty has been stable at its recent level. The EUR/PLN went near the 4.20 area.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimates of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.

• 15.45: PMI from the United States (estimates for industry and services: 53 points for both sectors).
• 16.00: Sale of new houses in the USA (estimates: 610k).

Positive PMI and historical record of Ifo

This morning we received very positive PMI readings from the eurozone’s economies. According to the IHS Markit, the PMI for both the industrial and services sector remained at its six-year maximum (56.8 points).

Investors focused on the employment rate in particular. This index’s growth was the largest since August 2007 and an increase in the employment rate of the eurozone’s industrial processing sector has reached its historical record. The IHS Markit senior economist, Chris Williamson claimed that the data for May is consistent with the GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 (0.6%-0.7% QoQ).

However, it’s worth noting that the survey data still hasn’t been confirmed by solid data. In March, industrial production of the eurozone was at the level of 1.9% YOY. This is a similar result to this index’s twenty-four-month average (1.7% YOY). Moreover, the French data for the past quarters was fairly weak as well (GDP: positive 0.3% QoQ and positive 0.8% YOY). However, the French PMI has been indicating a significant improvement since the beginning of the year.

Germany continue to quote the best results among the largest EU economies, which has been confirmed by both the PMI and Ifo readings. The latter were defined as euphoric. In addition, the basic Ifo index increased up to 114.6 points, which is its largest value in history.

The current economic situation has also been supported by an increasing component of the expectation index. This has increased the likelihood that the positive business cycle in Germany will be fairly durable, which will support the Polish economy.

Nevertheless, the currency market’s reaction was moderately positive for the euro. The EUR/USD was making attempts to bounce above the 1.1250 before noon, which appeared unsuccessful. It’s also possible that investors have been anticipating more details regarding the US budget for the next decade.

Lower expenses and higher GDP growth

At 3.00, the US Office of Management and Budget (OMB) revealed excerpts of the White House’s plan regarding expenses and income for the next ten years. This plan mainly includes a 3.6 trillion dollars budget reduction, which is to significantly decrease the debt/GDP until 2027 (from approximately 80% to 60%, according to The Wall Street Journal), as well as to cause a budget surplus in 2027 (according to Financial Times).

The plan also assumes the economic growth to accelerate from estimated 2.3% in 2017 to 3.0% in 2020. Moreover, the 3.0% economic growth is estimated to be sustained until 2027. These expectations can be considered as too optimistic, taking into consideration the GDP growth estimates that were presented by the Federal Reserve (slightly below 2.0%). Moreover, the Wall Street Journal reminded that the initial budget plan from George W. Bush in 2001 assumed the US debt/GDP reduction down to 0% within ten years, but eventually was at the level of approximately 60% of the GDP.

The revealed assumptions are also lacking precise information regarding taxes. Perhaps more specific information will appear within the next few days. Today, the budget plan will be sent to the Congress. The market’s reaction has been minor, most likely due to the lack of details regarding taxes.

Zloty has been calm

The EUR/PLN has been moving near the 4.20 area. Due to high value of the EUR/USD (slightly above 1.1250), the dollar’s exchange rate against the zloty is near its twelve-month minimum (3.70). This afternoon, we will receive the data regarding the American PMI, as well as the real estates market.

The impact of this data on the dollar may appear asymmetrical. Taking into consideration the current sentiment, negative data may increase the dollar’s depreciation. Moreover, positive readings will have a minor impact on the USD appreciation. What’s essential is the reaction of the Congress to the budget plan. It’s possible that its final version may differ from its initial form.