Daily analysis 23.01.2018

23.01.2018 12:20|Bartosz Grejner

Federal institutions in the US supported by temporary funding and improved market sentiment. The British currency appreciated after the weekend’s statement by President Emmanuel Macron. The zloty remained stable, but will likely become more volatile on Thursday.

The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.

  • No macro data that clearly influences the analysed currency pairs.

End of the three-day US government shutdown

A stronger dollar was observed this morning after the US Senate voted for the temporary federal funding (until 8 February) last night. To reach an agreement, it was essential for Republicans to assure Democrats that so-called "Dreamers" (people who illegally found themselves in the USA as children and who are currently threatened with deportation) will be protected.

This information contributed to the improvement of the market sentiment. The US main market indexes have once again reached historical records. This morning, a rise in Europe's main market indexes was observed. The German Dax index, which is also backed by SPD's support for coalition negotiations with Angela Merkel, recorded new highs similar to the Polish WIG20.

The US currency benefited from the break in the deadlock between Democrats and Republicans. The dollar appreciated slightly this morning, although the reaction has been limited. The EUR/USD pair's quotations fell to around 1.223 and were within the quotation range that was recently observed. The market is likely waiting for Thursday’s ECB (European Central Bank) statement and press conference and only then can some significant movements on the currency market be observed.

Pound was supported and zloty with no major changes

The French President was interviewed by BBC, in which he slightly eased his stance towards the UK-EU agreement on Brexit. This has noticeably helped the pound. Although today, a slight rebound was observed and one pound exceeded the price of 1.40 USD in the evening (for the first time since the referendum in mid-2016 in which the British people voted for exiting EU).

The pound was also the strongest in relation to the euro and the zloty for about a month. Maintaining this positive trend in negotiations could slowly strengthen the British currency. However, the views of the ruling Conservative Party could be an obstacle.

According to a survey published on Monday in the article, "The UK in a Changing Europe" by the Mile End Institute, 76% of the Tories in Parliament believe that the referendum results prohibit staying in the common market. In December 2016, it amounted to 44%. Although in the coming months, an upward trend of the pound may be observed, significant differences in opinion and PM Theresa May's weaker internal and external position may cause quotations to be subject to even greater fluctuations.

Calm zloty quotations

During the morning trading, one pound cost 4.76 PLN. This is the highest level in over a month and a bit more than what was recorded on the 9th and 10th of January. Maintaining the current trend may cause the boundary of 4.80 PLN to be exceeded relatively quickly. Thursday's ECB can signify this. If the ECB's statement is relatively dovish (core scenario) and leads to a rapid drop in the EUR/USD pair as well as an increase in the dollar, the entire zloty basket may depreciate.

Compared to other main currencies, the zloty's quotations were close to yesterday's levels. One euro cost around 4.17 PLN and the franc oscillated between 3.53 and 3.54. Until Thursday's ECB, no significant movements from the current levels of these currency pairs are expected. The aforementioned probable weakening of the euro, with a simultaneously strengthening dollar, could weaken the zloty. Although the biggest changes will probably be observed for the USD/PLN and GBP/PLN pairs.


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