Daily analysis 20.03.2013

The Cyprus parliament rejected to tax deposits. Today the global currency market will focus on FED. The pound will be influenced by “Minutes” from the last BoE meeting and budget presentation from George Osborne. In Poland the zloty should follow a path from the global markets.

Najważniejsze dane makro (czas CET – środkowoeuropejski). Szacunki danych makro są na podstawie informacji z Bloomberg'a, chyba że zaznaczono inaczej:

• 10.30 CET: BoE Minutes
• 13.30 CET: U.K Budget
• 19.00 CET: FOMC economic forecast and the statement
• 19.30 CET: Ben Bernanke Conference

No agreement in Cyprus, so far.

On Tuesday afternoon the parliament in Cyprus rejected (there were no votes in favor) the idea to put a levy on deposits. However, the message didn't push the euro to the new lows so it seems that the case is fully priced in. On the other hand there is still no plan B regarding the bankrupt island. There are some speculations that Nicosia will decide to use a part of nation's pension savings or get a loan from Russia. It is worth to have some reservations regarding the Cyprus example. There is no doubt that UE image will be hurt, but suggestions that the levy casus will break up the Union or spur a bank run in other countries are clearly overstated. Such opinions are put rather in favor of tax havens beneficiaries, then ordinary people. In Poland we have the interest rate deposit tax at 19%. Concerning the historical deposit rates at around 5%, the government is taking around 1% of the capital each year. It means that every 6 years the levy is similar to that in Cyprus.

FED in focus.

The FOMC meeting results will be a key event today. Analysts pointing out that both the statement and the conference will be dovish. Ben Bernanke will try to erase a hawkish outcome of the recent Minutes and some anti QE opinions from a few FOMC members. The market is also expecting that the Federal Reserve will rise the economic growth projection for the recent quarter, but lower it for the 2nd half of the year (bearish for the dollar). If the conditions are fulfilled then we can expect the EUR/USD to come back above 1.3000 mark. On the other hand if the FED's chief expresses some doubts regarding the asset purchase economic goals (unemployment rate at 6.5% and expected inflation at 2.5%) or mentions diminishing effectiveness (low probability) of the QE than the USD should strengthen significantly.

Crucial day for the pound.

Today we can expect either to end the correction on the pound or extend it. At 10.30 CET we will receive the recent BoE Minutes. If four (previously it was 3 out of 9) members voted in favor of additional 25 billion pounds stimulus than we can expect the sterling to weaken. Contrary, if less members pushed for expanding the asset purchase program then the cable should rise. The next important event is today's George Osborne budget speech. Any suggestions from the Chancellor of Exchequer regarding the BoE mandate (softer approach to inflation or more focusing on growth) should also put pressure on the pound.

Pretty calm on the zloty.

There is almost no volatility on the primary Polish pair. Yesterday we could observed that the EUR/PLN rose around 0.01 PLN. It is much less than previously in similar conditions when during a global market turmoil the zloty was weaker around 0.10 PLN. There is much more action on GBP/PLN or USD/PLN but it is only due to rapid changes on EUR/GBP or EUR/USD. In the coming hours in case of increasing risk appetite (some resolution in Cyprus or from Ben Bernanke conference) we can come back to 4.14-4.15 levels.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate.:

Technical analysis EUR/USD: yesterday we ideally fulfilled the medium-term target at 1.2870-40 (the goal of head-and-shoulder formation, 50% Fibonacci retracement level; 200 DMA). Now we have to pay attention whether the EUR/USD is bouncing above 1.3100 (buy signal) or fall below under the support levels toward 1.2700.

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: the base case scenario is the range trend on EUR/PLN (between 4.12 and 4.17-4.1800). It is still worth to remember about 50 DMA crossing 200 DMA (golden cross) which can generate the buy signal when the pair jumps over 4.1900. On the other hand the slide under 4.1200 should results in the move toward 4.08.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: the base case scenario is still a move toward 3.27 (50% Fibonacci retracement level and November highs) breaking earlier 3.22 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: we moved toward the highs of range trade (around 3.41). The breakout should result in move toward 3.48. For now, however, the consolidation (3.33-3.41) is still more probable then the breakout.

Technical analysis GBP/PLN: staying close to the highs of the correction target (4.8700) is in favor of the bulls. If we don't fall under the resistance level there is an increasing chance that 4.9000 can be breached. On the other hand if 4.87-4.90 will hold then the continuation of the bearish trend in the medium-term is highly possible.