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Daily analysis 19.06.2015

19 Jun 2015 13:08|Marcin Lipka

Thursday's summit of the Eurogroup did not bring an agreement. The EBC is forced to make an emergency increase in liquidity of the Greek banks. A dangerous rumour. First comments of the Federal Reserve member after the recent meeting. The zloty remains under the pressure of Greece, but the most tension will be observed at the beginning of next week.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg's information, unless marked otherwise.

  • 17.40: Appearance of John Williams, a member of the Federal Reserve from San Francisco

Still without an agreement

The recent meeting of the Eurogroup on Thursday evening did not bring any breakthroughs. According to the news from Luxembourg, the plan of the Greek minister of finance was not even discussed. This is because it was not talked over by the technical teams, which deal with technical matters. The disturbance of the standard order was probably the main reason for which there was no faith in undertaking any specific decisions, even before the meeting.

In the evening, the chairman of the European Council announced that an extraordinary meeting of the leaders of the eurozone countries will take place on Monday evening. It is likely that the ministers of finance of the eurozone countries will have a similar meeting beforehand. Thus, the crucial moment regarding Greece has moved from Friday to the beginning of next week.

The extraordinary EBC summit and a rumour

Due to the fact that this week approximately 3 billion euro were probably withdrawn from Greek banks, the extraordinary EBC summit will be held today. The European monetary authorities actually make weekly increases in liquidity of the Greek banks. However, this week's withdrawals have clearly accelerated. Thus, another top up of the Greek financial system was necessary.

Yesterday on the other hand, one of the EBC board members showed a certain lingual light-heartedness. This was according to the information from Reuters', which was confirmed by the Financial Times correspondent Benoit Coeure, when asked whether the Greek banks will still be open, he answered, “tomorrow, yes. Monday? I do not know”.

Such doubts in the Greek financial system expressed by the person who decides whether the EBC will provide liquidity or not, have increased the tension inside Greece. On the other hand, one cannot exclude the possibility that it was deliberate, in order to remind Athens about the situation they are in. The EBC itself did not comment on this matter, and despite the anxieties there was no big commotion in front of the local banks this morning.

First appearance after the Fed meeting

The market should take this afternoon's appearance of John Williams into consideration. The chairman of the San Francisco Federal Reserve is moderately dovish, and his views are similar to Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman. One can also not exclude that he was the person pointing out the necessity of just one interest rates hike this year.

If those suggestions are confirmed, it could cause a wear off of the American currency. It would happen despite the matters regarding Greece, and due to the lack of macroeconomic data.

Few words about the currency market

The drama regarding the Greek negotiations increases just as expected. However, in our opinion it does not change the base case scenario, which still assumes an understanding between both sides. Currently, it is most likely that the consensus between the creditors and the government of Tsipras will be based on an extension of the current aid program for the next few forthcoming weeks. The scenario of introducing the control of capital flow is still less likely than the solutions which were devised without the need to adopt extraordinary methods.

More expensive currencies, but a limited movement

The zloty wears off to the majority of currencies. Today at noon one had to pay approximately 4.00 PLN per franc. On the other hand, the decrease in the zloty's value is limited, due to the fact that there is still a chance to reach an understanding between Greece and its creditors. The deadline of these negotiations now needs to be moved to Monday.

The summit of the leaders of the eurozone countries held on Monday decreases the risk of deterioration in the situation before the weekend. Thus, the market participants will not be forced to close their positions on the zloty on Friday, fearing the negative scenario. However, if next week's discussions do not bring any results, the EUR/PLN should go to the area of 4.20, and the franc would probably cost 4.05 PLN.

Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.1250-1.1350 1.1150-1.1250 1.1350-1.1450
Range EUR/PLN 4.1500-4.1900 4.1500-4.1900 4.1500-4.1900
Range USD/PLN 3.6900-3.7300 3.7300-3.7700 3.6500-3.6900
Range CHF/PLN 3.9700-4.0100 3.9700-4.0100 3.9700-4.0100

Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/USD rate:

Range GBP/USD 1.5850-1.5950 1.5750-1.5850 1.5950-1.6050
Range GBP/PLN 5.8200-5.8600 5.7800-5.8200 5.8600-5.9000

19 Jun 2015 13:08|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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Afternoon analysis 17.06.2015

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