__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The “considerable time” remains but overall the Federal Reserve meeting was mixed what was mainly used to strengthen the dollar. Swiss Central Bank more committed to protect the floor but reluctant to introduce negative interest rates. Less excitement before the Scottish voting. The EUR/PLN broadly unchanged. Industrial production consequences.
Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
The Fed. SNB. Voting
Expectations before the Federal Reserve meeting were quite high. It was supposed to give an answer whether the chairwoman Yellen is getting closer to the Committee consensus (leaning a bit toward more hawkish stance) or keeps her dovish approach despite the Fed's recent hints (July's minutes, Jackson Hole speech, San Francisco Fed paper) on possible earlier rates hikes.
The Federal Reserve managed for yet another time to run the meeting in a way that both sides found phrases that supported their theories and therefore lessened the market reaction.
For supporters of keeping interest rates close to zero for longer (at least until mid 2015) it was important that both “considerable time” (Hilsenrath was right!) and “significant underutilization of labor resources” remained in the statement. As a result we had rapid, but short-lived bounce seconds after the message hit the wires.
On the other hand, we received more hawkish economic projections form the Federal Reserve members. The median expectation for the interest rate level at the end of 2015 was raised from 1.125% (in June) to 1.375%. Even more significant change was made for 2016 expectations, where the numbers were revised upwards from 2.50% to 2.875%. The new unemployment (lower) and inflation (a bit higher) figures were also a bit more hawkish, however, the future cost of credit made it to the headlines.
The hawkish message also came from two dissenters (Plosser and Fisher). They both would like to see rather sooner than later rate hikes which, in their view, is supporter by “improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability”. Actually Fisher may feel a bit tricked after July's meeting when he thought that the Fed is getting a bit more hawkish.
It is also worth noting how Yellen skilfully softened the “considerable time” phrase. For a few minutes she was explaining that the Fed's decisions are not “calendar based” but depend on the incoming data. She also confirmed a view that if economy accelerates and inflation moves toward the target faster the committee may start hiking interest rates sooner and quicker than expected. As a result the “considerable time” significantly lost its meaning and probably will be scrapped either in October or December.
After the Federal Reserve meeting the markets were directed by their long/medium-term trends. The dollar, government bonds and equities rose. However, only in case of the “greenback” the move was pretty steep and we dropped below 1.2850 on the EUR/USD.
The Swiss Central Bank (SNB) didn't introduce the negative interest rates today which pushed the franc a bit higher. But the message was overall pretty grim for the CHF. Firstly, both the GDP expectations and inflation projections were revised significantly lower. The growth in 2014 was cut by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% while inflation expectations for 2015 were trimmed from 0.9% to 0.5%. The SNB also strengthened its message toward keeping the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000 claiming that “if necessary, it will take further measures immediately”. Concluding we should expect that the EUR/CHF floor will be kept at least for several more quarters.
After 11:00 pm CET the market will receive the first estimates on Scottish voting. The most recent polls (including published yesterday Panelbase and Ipsos) are showing that unionists still have a lead around 2 to 5 percentage points. It is in line with the market expectations so the GBP/USD is pretty stable. In a resolution confirming the broad based view should give around 100 pips boost to the GBP/USD. On the other hand, if we surprising data the scenario of massive drop of the “cable” is still actual.
Summarizing, the Federal Reserve manged to balance between fairly hawkish economic projections and quite dovish signals in the statement. The task was completed with a high degree of success which was confirmed with fairly muted bonds and stock market reaction. A bit more nervousness was observed on the dollar but it was rather caused with some unfulfilled expectations (considerable time was left unchanged but the SEP on interest rate pace were hiked). After 11.00 pm CET we should expect more volatility, especially if the results are not clear at the beginning. Actually the odds are pretty low that we will see an independent Scotland so the GBP/USD should be higher on Friday morning.
Fairly stable. Production
The Polish currency is fairly stable after the Federal Reserve decision and most transactions are made between 4.18-4.19 per euro. More volatility was observed on USD/PLN which rose above 3.25 and is slowly approaching the goal around 3.30.
The industrial production data from Poland significantly increased the probability of interest rate decrease by 50 bps but it will not happen this October. A steeper cut will be probably decided in November when the MPC is scheduled to receive new Economic Projections and more data are set to be available (for example Q3 GDP). It can be a perfect moment for more bold decision. If nothing changes markedly we may see a reference rate at 1.75% in two months.
In a short term the EUR/PLN should be pretty stable. More volatility is expected on GBP/PLN which in case of Scottish “no” should rise toward 5.35 and in scenario of independence we can even see a drop toward 5.00. The first scenario is much more probable.
Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:
See also:
Afternoon analysis 17.09.2014
Daily analysis 17.09.2014
Afternoon analysis 16.09.2014
Daily analysis 16.09.2014
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.